A bitcoin at 500,000 dollars: VanEck details a scenario based on comparison with gold

VanEck, the asset management company, presents an ambitious outlook for the digital asset market. In an analysis authored by Mathew Sigel and his team, the specialists envision a price of 500,000 dollars for bitcoin by 2030-2035. Their scenario is based on a direct comparison with the total value of gold. It assumes that the leading cryptocurrency gains traction among investors and institutions. However, this projection is set within a five to ten-year horizon, according to VanEck today.

In brief

• VanEck anticipates a bitcoin price of 500,000 dollars between 2030 and 2035.
• This projection is based on a market capitalization representing 50% of that of gold.
• The company believes that institutional adoption and young investors will support this progression.
• In the longer term, VanEck even mentions a scenario of 3 million dollars by 2050.

VanEck links bitcoin to gold capitalization

To build this estimate, VanEck analysts take gold as a point of comparison. They believe that the bitcoin market could reach half of the precious metal's capitalization. This share would represent approximately 14 trillion dollars, according to the figures presented in their analysis. At this level, the price of the digital asset could approach 500,000 dollars.

VanEck estimates that about 5.6 times the growth is needed from the current price. This calculation allows the team to position its scenario over a period of five to ten years. They envision a gradual evolution, linked to the place that the asset could take in relation to gold. The timeframe of 2030 to 2035 thus provides a framework for this estimate.

The report considers that the market may be at the beginning of a new growth cycle. According to the indicators monitored by the team, the bullish phase has not yet reached its maturity. It notably outperformed gold and the S&P 500 in the third quarter. During this period, its price increased by more than 40%.

This performance fuels the idea of a possible return of bitcoin above 100,000 dollars. However, VanEck distinguishes this perspective from its long-term goal. It assumes that the digital asset continues to gain importance over the years. The comparison with gold thus mainly serves to measure bitcoin's potential in the medium and long term.

Public debt and devaluation: two favorable factors for Bitcoin

VanEck also frames its forecast within a context of rising public debt. According to its analysis, devaluation operations can support demand for assets considered as stores of value. Both gold and bitcoin could benefit from this dynamic. However, analysts believe that the leading cryptocurrency is gradually gaining ground. It is attracting the attention of users.

The report particularly highlights the role of young consumers in emerging markets. Their adoption could strengthen the presence of this asset among new generations of investors. VanEck adds a second driver: the continuous accumulation by international financial institutions. These purchases could broaden the base of holders and support demand over time.

This combination forms the foundation of the five to ten-year projection. If these trends continue, bitcoin's market share could reach 50% of that of gold. VanEck associates this hypothesis with a valuation close to 14 trillion dollars. The price of 500,000 dollars stems from this comparison, rather than a simple extrapolation of recent movements.

VanEck mentions up to 3 million dollars for 2050

The analysts extend their reflection beyond 2035. Their long-term scenario suggests a potential price of 3 million dollars by 2050. For 2035, they mention a much wider range, between 300,000 and 5 million dollars. These levels depend on maintaining institutional adoption and intergenerational wealth transfer. They describe market hypotheses rather than guaranteed objectives.

The trajectory will therefore depend on several developments that remain to be confirmed. Adoption by younger generations, institutional purchases, and gold's place in portfolios will weigh on this scenario. VanEck presents 500,000 dollars as a possible medium-term target, with a deadline set between 2030 and 2035. By then, performance gaps and investment flows will allow tracking the progression of this thesis. The comparison with gold provides a benchmark, but does not solely determine the future price.

Ultimately, VanEck's projection is based on a gradual rapprochement between the value of the digital market and that of gold. If individual and institutional adoption continues, the threshold of 500,000 dollars could become feasible within the specified horizon. Conversely, a slowdown in these trends would limit the scope of this hypothesis. BTC will therefore need to confirm, over the coming years, its ability to capture an increasing share of global demand.