Midterms 2026: The 5 Elections That Will Decide the Fate of Crypto in Congress

Final lap before the verdict. Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3. Kalshi traders give a 70% chance to Democrats winning the House and the Senate. However, the crypto sector has bet nearly all of its $170 million campaign funds on Republicans. The last three midterm elections coincided with the Bitcoin cycle's low point. Here’s the reading grid for election night. Key points of this article:

• Kalshi traders have given a 70% chance to Democrats winning the House and the Senate, despite the $170 million bet by the crypto sector on Republicans.
• Fairshake and its affiliates have heavily invested in pro-crypto candidates, but the outcome of the Senate remains uncertain with crucial seats at stake in the 2026 midterms.

Midterms 2026: $170 Million on the Wrong Horse?

Fairshake and its affiliates have committed $154 million to their candidates, according to a spokesperson quoted by CoinDesk on November 1. The super PAC (political action committee authorized to spend without limits, independent of campaigns) still has $56 million set aside for the 2028 cycle. The same maneuver as two years ago.

Two other funds have followed suit. The Digital Freedom Fund of the Winklevoss brothers has committed over $8 million in October to block Democrats in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. The Fellowship Fund, funded by Cantor Fitzgerald and close to Tether, had contributed $3.8 million to Republicans, including Ken Paxton, before adding $600,000 for three incumbent Democrats. Half went to Ritchie Torres, the most enthusiastic New York elected official from his party on the subject.

<< Fairshake has always been and will always be an issue-focused organization >>, defends its spokesperson Geoff Vetter. << We support pro-crypto candidates in both parties. >> The problem lies in the Senate numbers. Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats 45 plus two independents, and they need four net gains to flip it. The seat in North Carolina left vacant by Thom Tillis is already nearly secured for them. Three more need to be won, without losing Michigan, among the states classified as << tossup >> by the Cook Political Report.

The 5 Senate Races to Watch on Tuesday Night

The odds below are those recorded on Sunday on Kalshi and Polymarket, the average polls are from RealClearPolitics. To be rechecked during the day, these markets move quickly.

• Ohio: Jon Husted (R, incumbent nominated in 2025) against Sherrod Brown (D). Brown at 71% on Kalshi as well as on Polymarket, 47.9% against 45.3% in the polls. This is the most expensive election in the sector's history: about $55 million spent by crypto PACs to make him lose.
• Texas: Ken Paxton (R) against James Talarico (D). Talarico given at 71-72%, polls at 48.8% against 47%. Paxton received money from the Fellowship Fund.
• Michigan: Democratic seat to defend, Abdul El-Sayed (D) against Mike Rogers (R). El-Sayed at 73-74%, 49.1% against 45.6% in the polls. No major crypto check spotted.
• Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) against Josh Turek (D). The only tossup where the Republican leads, at 55%, with 46% against 45.5% in the polls. The Digital Freedom Fund has put $418,000 for Hinson.
• Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R, incumbent) against Mary Peltola (D). Peltola at 69-71%, tight polls at 49.4% against 48.2%.

Kansas and Maine's Susan Collins complete the list of threatened Republican seats. Three flips in addition to North Carolina, Michigan retained, and the Senate changes hands.

Midterms: Why Ohio Matters More Than Others

Sherrod Brown chaired the Senate Banking Committee before his defeat in 2024, a campaign where Fairshake had already spent around $40 million. It was from this perch that he blocked any market structure legislation. His return would give him a seat on this committee at a time when the Clarity Act, passed by the House in July 2025, is still awaiting the Senate.

Predictive markets are not infallible. Polls measure intent, odds measure where the money of bettors is going, and both point in the same direction this time. The industry has bet against the trend. Kalshi showed about 70% chance of a fully Democratic Congress on Sunday night.

Ohio polls close at 1:30 AM Paris time, Alaska's around 6 AM. Whatever the outcome, Fairshake starts 2027 with $56 million in cash, and a Democratic Senate will have to deal with a lobby that has already proven it knows how to take down a committee chair.

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