Meta AI 'Muse' Could Shake Up Apple's 30% App Store Fee... 'Warning Lights for Service Business'

[Block Media Reporter Myung Jeong-seon] Meta Platforms' artificial intelligence (AI) agent 'Muse' is projected to shake up the 30% commission structure of the Apple App Store. This is due to the potential increase in transactions that bypass the existing App Store as AI agents search for and purchase products on behalf of users.

Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya recently stated on the 'All-In' podcast, "AI agents like Grokbot or Muse are sending warnings to the App Store's 30% revenue-sharing structure."

The key issue is the possibility of the transaction's subject shifting from humans to AI agents. Until now, it has been common for users to download applications from the App Store and make payments within the app. However, if AI agents select products and complete payments on behalf of users without going through the app, the structure that allows Apple to take up to 30% of the transaction amount may weaken.

Meta Also Aiming for 'Commission Business'... Plans to Take a Percentage from Each Muse Transaction

Meta is not solely looking to utilize AI agents as a free distribution network.

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms, mentioned in a recent interview regarding Muse's long-term business model that it would involve "taking a very small percentage as a commission from each transaction."

This is interpreted as Meta's strategy to create new transaction pathways centered around AI agents rather than eliminating Apple's existing commission model, thereby securing commissions in the process.

Industry insiders believe that if AI agents establish themselves as a new gateway for e-commerce, competition among platform operators for commissions will intensify. Previously, the App Store and search platforms dominated user entry points, but in the future, AI agents may handle product searches, comparisons, and payments all at once.

From Apple's perspective, since the profitability of its service business, including the App Store, is high, such changes could pose a medium- to long-term burden.

Apple's Margin Rises from 38% to 47%... Service Business Boosting Profitability

Apple's profitability has steadily improved over the past few years.

Apple's gross profit margin rose from about 38% in the 2019 fiscal year to about 47% in the 2025 fiscal year. The market believes that the expansion of the high-margin service business, including the App Store, has significantly contributed to this improvement in profitability.

While hardware like the iPhone incurs production and logistics costs, the App Store and subscription services have relatively low additional costs, allowing for higher margins.

The problem is that Apple's stock price already reflects a significant portion of this profitability.

Apple's expected price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for the next 12 months is about 37 times, nearing a high point in the last five years. Compared to the five-year average of about 29 times, this is a high level.

Investors are reflecting their expectations that Apple's service business growth and high profitability will continue in the stock price. Therefore, if AI agents partially erode the App Store's commission structure, there are analyses suggesting that stock price valuations may come under pressure before actual performance.

Apple Also Revamping App Store Around AI... Competition for Platform Dominance Intensifies

However, there is also a view that the likelihood of a significant disruption to Apple's revenue structure in the short term is limited.

Since Muse currently operates on the iPhone, Apple still controls the core distribution networks of devices and operating systems. As long as AI agents are provided in app form, it is difficult to completely bypass the Apple ecosystem.

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman predicts that Apple may completely overhaul the App Store around AI and Siri in the coming years. This means that Apple could redesign app search and usage methods to align with the era of AI agents.

Market performance forecasts remain robust for now.

The market expects Apple's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to increase by about 45%, from $7.46 in the 2025 fiscal year to $10.83 in the 2028 fiscal year. Current forecasts do not seem to reflect assumptions that the App Store's commissions will be significantly harmed.

Ultimately, the market's focus is less on whether AI agents will completely replace the App Store and more on how much of the transaction 'gateway' they can capture. Apple controls devices and operating systems, while Meta aims to grow AI agents into a new transaction platform.

In the short term, the impact on Apple's performance may be limited, but given the current high valuations, if doubts about the growth potential of services centered around the App Store increase, stock price volatility could expand.

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