China Increased Its Meat Purchases, Opening Opportunities for Argentina

The marked increase in beef purchases by the Chinese market throughout the first half of 2026 presents a landscape of significant volatility in global trade and an opportunity for Argentina. The imminent exhaustion of the quota assigned to Brazil could trigger major changes for other exporting countries, including Argentina.

Official figures from the General Administration of Customs of China show that the country acquired 1.53 million tons of beef in the first half of the year, marking a 17.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This accelerated level of acquisition exceeds the annual cap set by Beijing under the safeguard quota system, which is fixed for this period at 2.69 million tons, a margin lower than the 2.80 million tons imported the previous year.

According to a report by María Julia Aiassa, a specialist from the livestock exchange Rosgan, after a very active start to the year, Chinese orders showed some deceleration between March and May, although in June they accelerated again with imports of 246,000 tons, 19% more than the previous month.

Aiassa indicated that it is still necessary to see in detail whether this recovery signals the beginning of a phase with greater demand or if it is a temporary phenomenon driven by the nearing saturation of the quota assigned to Brazil.

In light of this scenario, the report warns that the gap between the volume of imports and the projected annual cap presents a couple of alternatives for the second half: a sharp halt in foreign acquisitions or an early saturation of the general quota, which would generate a supply deficit, price increases, and potential adjustments in trade rules.

Brazil and Australia stand out as the suppliers that have made the most use of their export limits. Australia has already completed the total of 205,000 tons assigned for 2026, while Brazil, with a quota of 1,106,000 tons, had executed 872,214 tons by the end of the first half, equivalent to 80% of the total. This rapid pace prompted the Chinese government to issue a formal warning regarding the accelerated exhaustion of the Brazilian quota.

In contrast, Argentina registers a moderate shipping pace in relation to its annual quota of 511,000 tons. In the first half, Argentine shipments to the Chinese market reached 239,500 tons, representing a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Uruguay, New Zealand, and the United States, on the other hand, show lower-than-expected use of their respective quotas, with the latter being the most extreme case, with virtually no exports to that destination.

Argentina's situation contrasts with that of Brazil and Australia. While these two countries opted to quickly saturate the Chinese market with the expectation of achieving quota expansions or relaxations, Argentina chose a more moderate export pace, hoping that the early exhaustion of its competitors' quotas would strengthen prices during the second half of the year and improve its positioning within the Chinese market.

Several Brazilian plants have begun to reduce or even suspend production destined for the Chinese market to avoid shipments that could be subject to tariffs of up to 67%. This leaves available space in the market that Argentina could take advantage of with the quota it still has available.

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