BCRA reserves rise to $49.642 billion, a new high in nearly seven years

The Central Bank (BCRA) resumed purchasing dollars at a moderate pace on Tuesday, August 4, and international reserves reached a new high in nearly seven years. Specifically, the monetary authority acquired $28 million in the official market, in a session with a traded volume of $582 million, absorbing nearly 5% of the total traded.

With this result, the net purchases for August rose to $46 million, while cumulative purchases in 2026 reached $13.373 billion. Thus, the Central Bank has recorded five consecutive sessions with a positive balance, although it started the month with a limited result compared to previous months and below the pace observed in July.

Therefore, the daily average for August stood at $23 million, still far from the $103 million in July, $68 million in June, and $137 million in May. Consequently, the start of the month indicated a continuation in accumulation, albeit with much lower intensity than observed in the stronger months of the purchasing program.

Meanwhile, gross international reserves increased by $266 million, ending at $49.642 billion. Thus, the stock reached its highest level in nearly seven years, having recovered on Monday from the temporary drop caused by end-of-month movements.

The improvement was due to a combination of official purchases and positive asset valuation. In particular, gold rose by 1% and likely contributed about $40 million to the book value of the Central Bank's holdings. Additionally, the euro increased by 0.22% against the dollar, the pound gained 0.16%, and the yuan rose by 0.02%, while the yen fell by 0.33%.

Thus, the dynamics of reserves once again showed a more favorable reading than at the end of July. Although BCRA's purchases were limited, the valuation effect and the reversal of end-of-month administrative movements allowed the stock to consolidate above $49 billion.

On the exchange front, the wholesale dollar rose by 0.07% and closed at $1.496 for sale. According to Gustavo Quintana, the currency ended just one peso above the previous close, in a session with similar volume and slight predominance of demand.

The analyst noted that the highs were reached at the beginning of the session when the wholesale rate hit $1.500, five pesos above the previous close. However, the supply of currencies appeared mid-morning and helped dissipate some of the initial pressure, bringing the quote down to a low of $1.494.50 during the middle of the session.

Then, with limited variations, prices adjusted back near the close and ended with a moderate improvement compared to the day's lows. In this context, Quintana highlighted that the volume traded in cash was $584.064 million and that $1.009 billion was traded in futures.

The specialist emphasized that in the first two days of the week, the wholesale exchange rate rose by $11, compared to an increase of only $1 in the same period the previous week. He also noted that the dollar recovered almost all of last week's decline, although maintaining the $1.500 zone seems difficult due to the official intervention strategy in futures.

In the future dollar contracts, the curve exhibited mixed behavior, with increases in the shorter maturities and decreases in the medium and long terms. Thus, August rose by 0.10% and September increased by 0.07%, while December fell by 0.12% and the 2027 contracts marked declines of up to 0.32%. On average, the overall variation was negative at 0.14%.

With these movements, the implied rate for August stood at 1.53% monthly, equivalent to 18.41% annualized. In pesos, the TAMAR fell from 23.31% to 22.94%, while the BADLAR decreased from 21.63% to 21.44%.

The dynamics of coverage returned to the center of analysis. The market indicated that during July, the exchange coverage provided by the consolidated public sector, between BCRA and the Treasury, would have increased by about $5 billion, pending knowledge of the dollar-linked intervention in the last sessions of the month. With this movement, the total stock would have approached $11.240 billion, after growing around $3 billion in June.

Thus, the day left a clear improvement on the reserves front, but it also showed that the pressure for coverage did not disappear. The BCRA resumed purchases, the stock reached a maximum in nearly seven years, and the wholesale dollar remained close to $1.500, in a scheme where intervention in futures continues to be a key tool to moderate the pace of exchange adjustment.

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