Bearish Statistics: How Bitcoin Performed During the US Elections

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Less than a month remains until the midterm elections in the United States in early November 2026. This event will determine the composition of the US Congress, where all 435 members of the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate will be elected for the next four years. Historically, the periods before and after elections coincide with increased volatility in Bitcoin's price.

Most often, the price of the leading cryptocurrency declines in the months leading up to and following midterm elections. The following statistics were formed during the previous elections in November 2014, 2018, and 2022:

• In October 2014 and 2022, the price of Bitcoin rose by 11% and 5%, respectively. In 2018, the price of BTC fell by 4%.

• In November of all three years, the price of Bitcoin dropped from 14% and 16% in 2014 and 2018, respectively, to a decline of 37% in 2022.

• In December, Bitcoin also did not show positive dynamics. In previous elections, the price fell by 4%, in 2018 it decreased by 7%, and in 2014 the decline was 15%.

Regarding the dynamics based on the quarter during which the elections took place, the price showed a downward trend. Over the three periods considered, the price of Bitcoin fell by 17%, 44%, and 15% in 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively.

Analysts from Binance Research also discovered a pattern in the years of midterm elections in the US. According to their data, in election years, Bitcoin on average fell by 56% from the peak of the same year; however, in the following 12 months, it demonstrated an average growth of 54%.

This also applies to other trading markets. For comparison: the S&P 500 index in midterm election years on average declined by 16%, but in the following year, it has not gone negative since 1939, showing an average growth of 19%.

Looking at the Bitcoin chart since 2014, the years following midterm elections have consistently shown growth: in 2015, prices increased by 34%, in 2019 by 94%, and in 2023 by 155%.

Experts explained this as investors fleeing from risky assets amid unclear prospects for regulation and macroeconomic policy, which become key topics in election debates.

Although all these observations and statistics do not guarantee a repetition of dynamics in the future, statistically, in the months of US elections, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has not shown positive movement. However, it has shown growth in the year following the elections.

The importance of elections for the crypto community is determined not only by the possible reactions of cryptocurrency prices but also by future regulatory policies. The interest of the crypto sector in this topic is estimated in millions of dollars.

As reported by Coindesk, interest is also observed from crypto companies that spend funds to lobby for certain candidates. On the real event prediction platform Polymarket, the market for "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" has gathered nearly $6 million in betting volume. Traders overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party, with a probability estimated at 67%.

Despite the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act bill, which did not pass a Senate vote in mid-September, local regulators, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), have been active on their part, issuing local regulatory proposals without a federal overarching law.

However, it is Congress that approves the budgets of regulators and can influence what rules they will adopt. Thus, the composition of Congress determines whether the crypto market will develop in a predictable environment or face pressure from new restrictions.

Moreover, there are specific risks for companies associated with US President Donald Trump. The expansion of Trump's business interests in the crypto industry and the increase in revenues from them raise concerns among some Congress members, predominantly Democrats. The focus has been on Trump's meme coin Official Trump (TRUMP) and his family's crypto project World Liberty Financial. According to financial reports published in June, Trump earned nearly $1.5 billion from crypto. It is assumed that if Democrats gain control of Congress, they may initiate hearings and investigations regarding these crypto firms, which could mean additional uncertainty for such companies.

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