The West Will Need $23.6 Trillion to Decouple from China

The U.S. and Europe need to invest $23.6 trillion over 25 years to eliminate economic dependence on China in strategic sectors. A complete relocation of production capacities will pose a significant challenge for the global economy. According to estimates, by 2050, the net costs for the U.S. will amount to $13.7 trillion, for the Eurozone to $9.1 trillion, and for the UK to $800 billion. The U.S. will need to invest about $550 billion annually, which is equivalent to all investments by the largest tech companies in data centers. For the European Union, this means effectively doubling the annual budget. Experts warn that a rapid decoupling from China is impossible, as by 2035, Beijing will control over 60% of the global lithium and cobalt market, as well as about 80% of graphite and rare earth elements. The West's vulnerability became evident when China restricted the export of rare earth metals in response to Trump's threats. A refusal of Chinese goods will lead to inflationary pressure, with price increases in critical sectors ranging from 1% to 2.5%. Analysts consider a complete break in ties unlikely, suggesting a partial break and selective relocation of production. The EU and China have set a deadline until October to resolve trade disputes.

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