Serenity: Storage Prices and Supply-Demand Structure Tighten, Short-Term Increases Do Not Indicate a Breakthrough

On September 6, Serenity issued a reminder that the fundamentals of storage shortages remain unchanged and may become even tighter. The market is rotating between different bottlenecks, but the company itself has not changed; what has changed is the valuation and narrative. Serenity provided evidence that the storage supply-demand gap may be worse than market expectations: Nikkei reported that Japanese distributors claim the storage demand gap has reached 40% to 60%, with prices expected to rise by about 50% by the end of the year; SpaceX has not accounted for approximately $130 billion in capital expenditures from ultra-large cloud providers, with total expenditures likely exceeding expectations; SanDisk's expected gross margin of 80% is projected to be maintained until 2030; visibility of orders from companies like Samsung has extended to 2031. Serenity emphasized that storage stocks are highly volatile, with some positions showing unrealized gains of up to 270%, but the company's operational fundamentals often do not align with short-term stock prices. The same logic applies to other bottleneck segments such as optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates; after a rebound in stock prices, one should not assume that shortages have ended. Storage prices and the supply-demand structure remain tight, and market sentiment and valuation narratives are rapidly rotating.

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