Serenity Optimistic About Storage Chips and Optical Communication Supercycle

The white-haired stock guru Serenity stated on platform X that despite recent AI-related stocks being affected by macroeconomic conditions, interest rate hike expectations, and concerns about the sustainability of capital expenditures, the fundamentals of key supply chain segments such as storage chips and optical communication remain strong. There is a clear divergence in market pricing for different companies. The demand visibility for storage manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix has extended to 2030 to 2031, and long-term procurement agreements and price floor mechanisms are expected to support future profitability. In the optical communication sector, Lumentum's capacity is essentially sold out until 2029, and with the large-scale application of CPO/NPO technologies, a supercycle in optical communication may arrive between 2027 and 2028, making companies like AAOI and SIVE that are expanding production worth watching. For capital expenditure-intensive companies like IREN, the market seems less favorable towards those requiring continuous large investments. The current market has entered a more risk-averse environment, with funds starting to shift towards large enterprises seeking safety, such as CrowdStrike and Palantir. The white-haired stock guru believes that even if AI capital expenditures slow down, it does not mean that all supply chain companies will face pressure simultaneously. Some key supply chain companies may be undervalued, with high demand visibility, approaching profitability inflection points, and expected declines in long-term valuations potentially leading to better performance in the medium term.

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