Polymarket - Presidential Election 2027: $128M Bet, Blocked in France

As of September 6, 2026, Polymarket's market for the << Next French Presidential Election >> shows a trading volume of $128,026,232, according to public data from the platform. It is one of the most active political markets in the world, focusing on an election that will not take place until April 2027. At the same time, this market is legally inaccessible from France: the National Gaming Authority ordered its blocking on July 16, 2026. A financial object built on the blockchain, a real French audience, and a regulator classifying it as illegal gambling: the issue is not the race, but the mechanics.

In Brief

• The Polymarket for the French presidential election 2027 reaches a volume of $128,026,232 as of September 6, 2026, according to public data from the platform.
• Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market settled in USDC on Polygon; share prices, ranging from $0 to $1, express an implied probability.
• The ANJ ordered the blocking of the site in France on July 16, 2026; a criminal investigation for alleged manipulation was opened on May 4, 2026, and Polymarket took legal action in France on August 22, 2026.

What is Polymarket, and why is it a crypto object? {#h-what-is-polymarket-and-why-is-it-a-crypto-object}

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users trade binary contracts on real events, settled in USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Each market is a yes or no question; a share of the correct outcome is worth $1 at resolution, while a share of the incorrect outcome is worth zero. The price of a share, between $0 and $1, corresponds to the probability that the market collectively assigns to the event.

Specifically, a << yes >> share priced at $0.27 reflects an implied probability of 27%. Prices move in real-time according to supply and demand in an order book, without a bookmaker setting the odds. Transaction settlements are done via smart contracts, and resolution is ensured by a decentralized oracle, UMA, which verifies the event's outcome against data sources before automatically paying winners in USDC. It is this architecture—stablecoin, public blockchain, self-custodial wallet, oracle—that categorizes Polymarket as crypto rather than traditional sports betting.

How much has been bet on the 2027 presidential election? {#h-how-much-has-been-bet-on-the-2027-presidential-election}

As of September 6, 2026, the trading volume on the French presidential market reaches $128,026,232, according to the public market page on Polymarket. This figure is cumulative since the market's opening; it measures the total trades, not the amounts currently at stake.

The growth is rapid: the same market exceeded $111 million by mid-July 2026, and a count from May 2026 placed the total for all markets on French politics around $80 million aggregated.

The continuously listed presidential market features several dozen potential candidates. For comparison, the market for the 2028 U.S. presidential candidate has surpassed $1 billion in volume, and that for the 2026 World Cup has exceeded $600 million.

What Do the Odds Say, and Why They Should Be Read with Caution

In mid-July 2026, market prices placed a tight trio at the top around 26 to 27%: Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe close to 27%, Jordan Bardella around 26%, according to the odds recorded on Polymarket at that date. The gap is small, and the market estimated that no scenario exceeded a one in three chance.

These figures are prices, not verified forecasts. They reflect what anonymous traders are willing to pay at a given moment, and they move with the news: the Paris Court of Appeal's decision in July 2026 regarding Marine Le Pen's ineligibility affected her market price, just like campaign announcements. A market price quickly incorporates information, but it has no guaranteed predictive value, and it can be distorted by low liquidity or a few large players. It is a thermometer of sentiment, to be handled as such.

Why is Polymarket Blocked in France?

On July 16, 2026, the president of the National Gaming Authority ordered French internet service providers to block access to the Polymarket site, on the grounds that it promotes an illegal gambling and betting offer. Under French law, prediction sites have no approval and are treated as illegal gambling, which the ANJ publicly reminded in February 2026.

Several factors weighed in. The ANJ considers the real-time display of odds on the homepage as a vector for advertising an unauthorized activity, which constitutes a criminal offense in France punishable by a fine of 100,000 euros. The regulator also points out the lack of a KYC mechanism, the mandatory identity verification in the regulated gambling universe, which prevents any age control, tax tracing, and verification of the integrity of the participants.

Finally, the integrity of certain markets has been called into question: bets on the weather raised suspicions of hacking weather probes, leading to an investigation opened on May 4, 2026, by the cybercrime section of the Paris prosecutor's office, entrusted to the Anti-Cybercrime Office.

Is the Blocking Effective, and Does Polymarket Contest It?

The blocking targets the website, and its technical scope is limited. Several media outlets noted that the day after the measure, while access to the standard site was cut off from France without a workaround, the Polymarket mobile app remained accessible there. The geo-blocking mechanism for transactions implemented by the platform since November 2024, after an initial formal notice, had itself been practically circumvented.

Polymarket reacted on the legal front. On August 22, 2026, the platform announced it had taken legal action in France to contest the blocking decided by the ANJ, without specifying at this stage the exact form of the appeal. The case is therefore open, and its outcome will determine whether the blocking is confirmed, modified, or lifted.

France is Not Alone: A European Trend

The French case is part of a broader movement of restrictions across the continent. Spain blocked Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May 2026 under its gambling legislation. According to a statement from the ANJ, Germany, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Switzerland, Greece, Ukraine, and the Czech Republic have also restricted or blocked prediction markets on their territory.

This diversity of approaches stems from the hybrid nature of these platforms, situated between the derivative financial market and gambling. In the United States, Polymarket took the opposite path: after acquiring a platform licensed by the futures market regulator, the CFTC, it returned to American traders in December 2025 under supervision, with access varying by state. Thus, the same product is treated as a regulated market on one side of the Atlantic and as illegal gambling on the other.

The next verifiable deadline is not electoral but judicial: the response of the French administrative justice to the appeal filed by Polymarket on August 22, 2026, will determine whether the blockage holds. Until then, the market continues to quote an April 2027 election in dollars and on the blockchain, while it remains, under French law, an unauthorized offer. No hearing has been made public at this stage: the next verifiable information will come from the judicial calendar, not from the platform.