Bitcoin Spot Demand: The Signal That Hadn't Reappeared Since the October 2025 Record

Two curves that hadn't pointed upwards together for ten months. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's spot demand has turned positive at the same time as that for perpetual futures, a first since the historic peak of October 2025. A signal that, if it holds over time, would reignite the debate on the end of the bear market that CryptoQuant itself had initiated a few months earlier. Key points of this article:

• Bitcoin's spot and futures demand has simultaneously increased, an unprecedented phenomenon since the historic peak of 2025.
• A combined demand of 170,000 BTC has been recorded, potentially signaling a sustainable bullish cycle despite overheating indicators.

The principle behind the graph below remains quite simple to grasp once you know its two components.

Spot demand corresponds to actual purchases of Bitcoin on exchanges, for cash. A user pays, receives their BTC, and the coin changes hands for good.

It contrasts with demand for perpetual contracts, these derivative products without an expiration date that merely bet on the price without ever touching the underlying asset. The distinction is not trivial for those who want to read the market correctly.

Thus, a spot purchase mechanically removes coins from the available market and cannot turn against its owner. A perpetual position, however, can be liquidated in minutes if the price moves in the wrong direction, which amplifies movements in both directions instead of stabilizing them. This is why analysts give more credit to a rally driven by spot demand than to a simple overflow of leverage: the former builds a floor, while the latter builds a house of cards.

When both indicators rise simultaneously, it means that spot buyers and margin traders are returning at the same time, a pattern that has historically preceded the strongest bullish phases. On August 20, Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, was the first to point out this simultaneous return to green, just as Bitcoin had crossed $72,000 following a purge of $2.75 billion in liquidated short positions. << The magnitude remains modest, but if this holds for another month, it would be reasonable to conclude that the bear market is over and a new bullish cycle has begun >>, he wrote.

170,000 BTC of combined spot and futures demand in one month

The signal from August 20 was just a first warning. It has since been confirmed and amplified. The combined spot and futures demand has risen to about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, a level that has historically preceded the most durable Bitcoin rallies.

However, the analyst notes that short-term overheating indicators are beginning to flash, a classic sign of a market rising too quickly to digest its own gains. The nuance matters: strong demand that absorbs profit-taking is not the same as demand that continues to rise relentlessly, and the two scenarios do not lead to the same outcome. In the first case, every wave of sellers taking their profits is immediately bought back. In the second, the market moves forward without ever really pausing.

Why spot demand must now take over

Ki Young Ju himself tempered his own observation a few days later, noting that the initial rebound in August owed much to the leverage effect of futures rather than pure spot purchases. A month of data is not enough to make a definitive judgment, and the market has already experienced several false starts of this kind since the peak of October 2025.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $79,000, buoyed by a rebound of nearly 25% in a week that has awakened the entire cryptocurrency market. The $2.75 billion in liquidated short positions on August 19 did most of the short-term heavy lifting. The future will depend on the ability of spot demand alone to take over without this artificial boost from leverage.

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