Bitcoin Price Ahead of October 28 Fed Decision: What 2026 Data Shows
By: WEEX|10/27/2026 04:00:00
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Prefer us on GoogleTL;DR
- Fed Decision: The Fed announces its rate decision on October 28 at 18:00 UTC, followed by Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after market close.
- Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: Across three previous Fed and Big Tech earnings overlaps in 2026, Bitcoin underperformed the Nasdaq the following day, even when tech stocks rallied.
- Historical Data: Bitcoin fell as much as 4.5% intraday in January and gained just 0.20% in July, highlighting its uneven relationship with tech stocks.
- Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC slipped below $80,000 on October 26 amid ETF outflows and market uncertainty. Fed guidance, ETF flows, and Big Tech earnings could shape its next move.
- Trade on WEEX: Track the live BTC price and trade BTC/USDT perpetual futures on WEEX.
The Fed's rate decision and earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet land about two hours apart on October 28, 2026. This is the fourth time this year that a Fed decision and Big Tech earnings have shared a night. In the three earlier overlaps, Bitcoin's next-day move trailed the Nasdaq every time:
- January: Bitcoin was down 4.5% by midday and near $81,000 by evening, while the Nasdaq closed 0.72% lower.
- April: Bitcoin fell 1.09% while the Nasdaq rose 0.9%.
- July: Bitcoin rose 0.20% while the Nasdaq rose 2.8%.
So far in 2026, Bitcoin has been sold alongside tech on bad nights but has not shared in the rallies that strong earnings produced.
October 28 Fed Decision Time: When Do Microsoft and Google Report Earnings?
The Fed announces its decision at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday, October 28, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the Nasdaq close about two hours later. The meeting runs October 27–28, according to the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar, and the chair's press conference follows at 18:30 UTC.
Microsoft has said it will release results after the market close on October 28, with its call at 21:30 UTC. Alphabet confirmed the same date in an October 6 notice on its investor relations site, with its call at 20:30 UTC. Amazon, per its own announcement, reports on October 29 and holds its call at 21:00 UTC.
| Event | UTC | UTC+8 |
| FOMC statement | Oct 28, 18:00 | Oct 29, 02:00 |
| Fed press conference | Oct 28, 18:30 | Oct 29, 02:30 |
| Microsoft and Alphabet results (after close) | Oct 28, from 20:00 | Oct 29, from 04:00 |
| GDP and September PCE data | Oct 29, 12:30 | Oct 29, 20:30 |
| Amazon results and call | Oct 29, call at 21:00 | Oct 30, call at 05:00 |
The GDP and inflation timing comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule, which lists the third-quarter GDP advance estimate and September personal income and outlays for October 29.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, according to its policy statement, and markets expect it to stay there. On October 26, Kiplinger reported that CME FedWatch put the odds of a hold at nearly 90%. With the decision largely priced in, the part most likely to move markets is what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says about December.
How Did Bitcoin React to 3 Previous Fed Decisions in 2026?
Bitcoin underperformed the Nasdaq on the day after all three earlier 2026 overlaps, including two days when the Nasdaq rose. In January, April and July, the Fed's decision and a cluster of Big Tech reports fell on the same Wednesday, as they do this week.
| Earnings night | Companies reporting | Fed outcome | Nasdaq, next day | Bitcoin, next day |
| Jan 28 | Microsoft, Meta, Tesla | Hold | -0.72% (23,685.12) | -4.5% by midday, near $81,000 by evening |
| Apr 29 | Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon | Hold, 8–4 vote | +0.9% (24,892.31) | -1.09% ($77,160.91 → $76,316.44) |
| Jul 29 | Microsoft, Meta | Hold, 9–3 vote | +2.8% (25,122.18) | +0.20% ($64,363.66 → $64,492.91) |
Each Bitcoin figure covers a window that includes both the Fed statement and the earnings releases.
January 28. The Fed held rates, and Microsoft's results that evening set the tone. Its shares fell 10% the next day, erasing more than $357 billion in market value, CNBC reported. The Nasdaq closed 0.72% lower at 23,685.12, according to Investing.com. Bitcoin fell much harder: CoinDesk reported it down 4.5% at $85,200 by midday, and it kept sliding into the evening.
April 29. The Fed held in an 8–4 vote, according to its April 29 statement. The next day the Nasdaq rose 0.9% to 24,892.31, The Associated Press reported. Fortune's daily price report shows Bitcoin slipping 1.09% over the same morning-to-morning window, from $77,160.91 to $76,316.44.
July 29. The Fed held in a 9–3 vote, Bloomberg Government reported. Microsoft jumped about 15% the next day for its best session since 2008, and the Nasdaq rose 2.8% to 25,122.18, according to CNBC. Bitcoin barely moved, rising 0.20% from $64,363.66 to $64,492.91 over the matching window, according to Fortune.
Three overlaps is a small sample, so these numbers describe how 2026 has gone, not a rule for October 28.
Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq in 2026: Why Does BTC Fall With Tech Stocks?
Many traders assume Bitcoin moves in step with the Nasdaq, so strong Big Tech earnings should lift it too. But the 2026 data shows the link running mostly one way: Bitcoin has followed tech lower and stayed behind when tech rallied.
January 29. CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin had traded above $88,000 earlier in the session before falling to $85,200, a 24-hour loss of 4.5%. At that point the Nasdaq was down about 1.5% and Microsoft more than 11%. By the close, the Nasdaq had pared a loss of about 2.5% to 0.7%, Investing.com reported. Bitcoin kept falling. CoinDesk's evening report had it as low as about $81,000, nearly $10,000 below its level 24 hours earlier.
October 22. The same pattern showed up in fund flows last week. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% that day, its steepest drop since early June, according to Reuters. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635.6 million in net outflows the same day, and another $137.9 million left on October 23, according to Farside Investors data. For a fund manager trimming risk when tech wobbles, a Bitcoin ETF is one of the quickest positions to cut.
Bottom line: This year, Bitcoin has traded like a high-beta tech position when risk comes off. When earnings lift tech stocks, it has traded like a separate asset. That asymmetry, rather than a simple "Bitcoin equals tech" relationship, is what the 2026 numbers support.
Why Do Fed Interest Rate Decisions Affect Bitcoin More Than Tech Earnings?
On both nights when the Nasdaq rallied and Bitcoin lagged, the Fed's message was more hawkish than a plain hold.
April. The committee held rates in an 8–4 vote, according to the Fed's April 29 statement. Three regional presidents, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, dissented because they opposed keeping an easing bias in the statement. Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a cut.
July. The vote was 9–3, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari all favoring a quarter-point hike, Bloomberg Government reported. The Nasdaq fell 1.74% on decision day. The next day, the 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, according to Trading Economics, even as the Nasdaq rebounded 2.8% on Microsoft's results.
One reading fits all three data points. On an earnings night, an equity index has a second input, company results, that can outweigh the rate message. Bitcoin has no earnings report of its own. Its response runs mainly through interest rates and ETF flows, so a hawkish tilt reaches it without an offsetting company story. This explanation matches 2026 so far but has not been tested beyond these three nights.
Microsoft and Google Earnings: Which Results Could Move Bitcoin?
Capital spending guidance and cloud growth have moved these stocks far more than earnings per share this year. Those stock moves are what spill into the Nasdaq and, through it, into crypto risk appetite.
Microsoft in January. The company beat earnings estimates, yet its stock fell 10%. CNBC reported that Azure growth slowed while quarterly capital expenditures jumped 66% to $37.5 billion.
Microsoft in July. The stock's 15% gain followed a report in which Azure revenue topped $100 billion for the fiscal year, according to Microsoft's earnings release.
Meta last week. After its third-quarter report, Meta raised the low end of its 2026 capex range to $135 billion, and its shares fell 7.2% on October 22, according to CNBC data.
For a baseline on what this quarter's cloud numbers will be measured against:
- Microsoft Cloud: revenue rose 27% to $59.3 billion in the June quarter, with Azure up 43%, according to Microsoft's fiscal fourth-quarter release.
- Google Cloud: revenue rose 82% to $24.8 billion in the same period, according to Alphabet's second-quarter release.
Microsoft's results will be posted on its investor relations page.
Bitcoin Price Outlook Before October 28: Key Levels and ETF Flows
Bitcoin enters this overlap below $80,000 after a week of ETF outflows, a weaker starting point than in July. CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 in Asian trading on October 26. It needs to recover $82,500, the level it lost the previous Thursday, before buyers can treat the dip as a pause.
ETF flows reversed sharply. Farside Investors data shows spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.07 billion from October 19 to 21, then lost $773.5 million over October 22 and 23.
Oil has added to the pressure. Crude reached a five-month high on October 22, Reuters reported, and Brent was still around $114 a barrel on October 26, according to CoinDesk.
The three earlier nights give a rough map of how different combinations have played out this year.
| Combination | Closest 2026 precedent | What happened |
| Fed hold with capex worries | January | Nasdaq dipped 0.72%; Bitcoin down 4.5% by midday |
| Mixed earnings with a divided Fed | April | Nasdaq rose 0.9%; Bitcoin slipped 1.09% |
| Hawkish dissents with strong cloud numbers | July | Nasdaq rallied 2.8%; Bitcoin flat |
None of these settings has produced a Bitcoin gain larger than 0.20% the next day this year. That is a description of three past nights, not a forecast for this one.
Longer-term demand has held up through the volatility. Even after last week's outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs had about $57.25 billion in cumulative net inflows through October 23, according to Farside Investors data.
FAQ
1. What Time Is the Fed Decision on October 28, 2026?
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC on October 28, 2026 (02:00 UTC+8 on October 29). The Fed chair's press conference follows at 18:30 UTC. Investors will watch both the rate decision and the Fed's guidance on future policy, particularly the outlook for December.
2. Will Bitcoin Go Up or Down After the Fed Decision?
Bitcoin's direction will depend on the Fed's policy guidance, market expectations, and investor risk appetite. During three previous Fed and Big Tech earnings overlaps in 2026, Bitcoin's next-day performance ranged from a 4.5% midday decline in January to a 0.20% gain in July. These historical results show that a rate hold does not guarantee a Bitcoin rally.
3. How Does the Fed Interest Rate Decision Affect Bitcoin?
Fed interest rate decisions influence Bitcoin through borrowing costs, liquidity expectations, and investor risk appetite. Hawkish guidance can pressure Bitcoin by supporting higher bond yields and reducing demand for risk assets. Dovish signals may support Bitcoin, although ETF flows and broader market conditions also influence its price.
4. Is Bitcoin Correlated With the Nasdaq in 2026?
Bitcoin has shown an uneven relationship with the Nasdaq in 2026. It declined alongside technology stocks during major sell-offs but did not fully participate in rallies driven by strong corporate earnings. Across three earlier Fed and Big Tech earnings overlaps, Bitcoin underperformed the Nasdaq the following day. This small sample suggests an asymmetric relationship rather than a consistent correlation.
5. Can Microsoft and Google Earnings Affect Bitcoin Prices?
Yes, indirectly. Microsoft and Alphabet earnings can move the Nasdaq and influence broader risk appetite, which may affect Bitcoin. On January 29, Microsoft shares fell approximately 10% while Bitcoin declined sharply. In July, Microsoft gained about 15%, but Bitcoin rose only 0.20%. Cloud revenue, AI capital spending, and earnings guidance are key figures investors will monitor.
6. Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below $80,000 in October 2026?
Bitcoin fell to approximately $79,800 on October 26 amid technology stock weakness, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and uncertainty ahead of the Fed decision. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $773.5 million in net outflows on October 22–23, reversing part of the previous week's inflows. Elevated oil prices also contributed to concerns about inflation and tighter monetary policy.
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