BIT Investment Opportunities Forum Held in Hong Kong, Discussing Next Phase of Market and Asset Allocation Opportunities

On the afternoon of August 26, during the Bitcoin Asia 2026 conference, global digital asset financial services group BIT (formerly Matrixport) held an investment opportunities forum in Hong Kong. The theme was "Traditional Capital Markets, Digital Assets, and More Possibilities," gathering over ten speakers including institutional investors, family office representatives, renowned stock analysts, media, and scholars to engage in in-depth discussions on macroeconomic cycles and digital asset allocation strategies. During the week of the forum, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound, briefly surpassing the $80,000 mark, reaching a three-month high. Driven by changes in macro liquidity expectations and a recovery in market risk appetite, discussions about whether digital assets have emerged from a phase of low valuation and entered a new allocation window have intensified. More than 200 investors, institutional representatives, and industry partners from Hong Kong and around the world attended the event.

Macro Tuning: From Digital Assets to Multi-Asset Allocation, Insights into the Merrill Clock and Asset Rotation Patterns

The forum was opened by Cynthia Wu, founding partner and Chief Business Officer of BIT. For more than seven years, BIT has continuously prioritized security and risk management as a fundamental aspect of its business development, constantly improving its trading, custody, and operational systems. BIT's business has always revolved around the core principle of "providing long-term sustainable financial services to clients on the basis of controllable risk." This year, BIT has extended this approach to more asset classes, officially transforming into a multi-asset digital financial platform: in February, it launched U.S. stock spot trading services, followed by the introduction of U.S. stock margin trading and options, with a cumulative trading volume of approximately $4 billion for related products. Integrating risk management into business development allows BIT to continuously provide long-term services to clients. This process relies on the long-standing trust of clients and the support of partners in infrastructure, products, and services, while BIT itself is still in a phase of continuous learning and development. Moving forward, the platform will also advance features such as Hong Kong dollar deposits and withdrawals and Hong Kong stock trading, further enhancing its service system in connecting traditional finance with digital assets.

Subsequently, BIT's special analyst Markus Thielen delivered an in-depth presentation on macro cycles, systematically reviewing historical patterns while clarifying the next directional changes in asset values for the attending investors. Based on an analysis of nearly fourteen years of historical market price data for Bitcoin, Markus distilled a price fluctuation pattern of "35 months of increase, 12 months of adjustment" on the market consensus of "four-year halving": prices falling below the one-year moving average typically correspond to bear market phases, while when prices regain the one-year line and the 21-week moving average, combined with signals such as the monthly RSI approaching cyclical lows, declining demand for put options, and the breaking of long-term downward trends, it often indicates the end of an adjustment and the start of a new upward cycle. However, he emphasized that Bitcoin's price cycle, when superimposed on the longer-term macro "debt-liquidity super cycle," will present a phase of interleaving rather than a simple linear relationship: the scale of U.S. debt and Bitcoin prices do not rise and fall in sync, but rather the debt trend determines the slope of long-term upward movement, while the dollar and liquidity dictate when the market will start, and Bitcoin's own price cycle determines the specific rhythm of this round of increases and adjustments. According to his judgment, we are currently at a triple intersection of "debt continuing to expand, the dollar's strong phase ending, and Bitcoin just completing approximately 12 months of adjustment," thus he believes the next upward cycle of about two to three years is beginning. He shared an intuitive valuation anchor from his research: based on the current scale of U.S. debt, Bitcoin's fair value should be around $100,000, and the current price level remains relatively low.

Roundtable Discussion: As the Valuation Logic of the AI Sector is Restructured, Where Will Global Funds Move?

The first roundtable was hosted by Sunny, CEO of PANews, inviting BIT's brokerage business head Elio Cui, AVS CEO Ming Zhao, Crystal He from the Derlin Family Office, and renowned Hong Kong stock analyst and full-time trader Sun Zihud to discuss the current tightening cash flow situation of AI giants: Can AI continue to attract long-term capital inflows, or has the capital rotation already begun to shift in a new direction?

The seven major tech giants collectively lost about $2.4 trillion in market value in June this year, serving as the starting point for this discussion. The guests discussed whether capital expenditure guidance in the AI industry would slow down and whether cash flow could cover such large-scale investments against the backdrop of increasing debt levels. Viewed through a longer technological cycle lens, this adjustment resembles another healthy clearing akin to the 2000 internet bubble—the track itself will not disappear; only companies that can traverse cycles will remain.

Regarding the next allocation direction for funds, the guests' judgments reflected a parallel differentiation between "defensive certainty assets" and "structurally high-volatility assets": some funds are still willing to stay in high-growth tracks like AI to seek excess returns, while others are turning to gold, RWA, and high-quality targets with stable cash flow to hedge against uncertainty, with gold continuing to be favored amid geopolitical uncertainties. Elio provided an explanation: as market expectations for interest rate hikes or a shift by the Federal Reserve increase, funds will shift from chasing high-volatility, high-growth assets to relatively scarce, more certain assets like gold and Bitcoin—this is also why he is currently focusing on gold, Bitcoin, RWA, and high-quality cash flow infrastructure companies. He is optimistic about the growth potential of stablecoins and RWA but also admits that the development of RWA still faces a common challenge—although the issuance volume is large, trading remains quiet. Crystal further confirmed this from the perspective of institutional investors: trillion-dollar institutions like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are all long-term positioning in this track, but currently face four limitations—limited asset types (about 40% of the $31.4 billion issuance is U.S. debt), insufficient liquidity, mostly single-chain development lacking cross-chain collaboration, and the need for ongoing compliance and policy guidance.

The highest-ranking category of RWA issuance, tokenized U.S. stocks, faces similar tests. On the surface, it appears that U.S. stocks possess strong wealth effects and attractiveness, allowing a broader range of investors to access this asset class for the first time. However, the more fundamental reason is actually the "lowering of thresholds," rather than the new asset itself—tokenization has allowed users who previously could not open accounts to buy U.S. stocks to finally obtain entry tickets. According to industry data, in June 2026, the on-chain monthly trading volume of tokenized U.S. stocks was approximately $9.22 billion, translating to an average weekly trading volume of about $2.1 billion, still only one-180th of the Nasdaq's daily trading volume (approximately $383.7 billion). This indicates that after the threshold is lowered, the issues of liquidity and whether the underlying assets can truly be redeemed have not been validated by the market: once large buy or sell orders are needed, investors often find that the liquidity of the underlying U.S. stocks corresponding to the tokens is not as abundant as imagined. This phenomenon reflects that the trading channels capable of directly connecting to the U.S. capital market to provide real targets and ample liquidity are still difficult to replace in the short term.

Fireside Chat: The Web3 Industry is Transitioning from Conceptual Narratives to a Verifiable Trust Institutional Stage

Wendy Jiang, General Manager of Cactus Custody under BIT, and Daniel Zhang, head of the Solana Foundation for the Chinese-speaking region, discussed the development ecology of public chains and the institutional paths for stablecoins and RWA. As the Web3 industry gradually transitions from a phase of "narrative competition and conceptual competition" to an institutional stage dominated by institutional funds, establishing trust through verifiable records, the competition among public chains is no longer about whose story is more appealing, but rather about who can provide secure records and real capital activity that withstand the test of time and regulation. Daniel bluntly stated that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has only approved three cryptocurrency spot ETFs: BTC, ETH, and Solana, with the Solana ETF being the first of its kind launched in Hong Kong; under the current regulatory framework in Hong Kong, the number of token types approved for trading with retail investors remains limited, and the public chains that can truly meet the long-term, large-scale RWA and stablecoin distribution needs are effectively reduced to ETH and Solana. He also proposed a highly professional evaluation criterion: to measure whether a public chain possesses real economic vitality, one should not only look at the total issuance of stablecoins but also consider the "velocity of funds"—based on transaction volume, Solana currently ranks alongside Ethereum in the global top tier. Wendy used the metaphor of a "broad avenue" to describe the role of custodial institutions as a "service area" in the process of institutional funds flowing into the public chain ecosystem—the larger the traffic (institutional funds) on the road, the more complete the gas stations and service facilities need to be; both parties agreed that the "window period" left for new public chains in the industry has closed, and historical records recognized by institutions and regulators are difficult for latecomers to replicate.

Peak Discussion: A New Phase of Digital Asset Investment, From "Should We Allocate?" to "How to Allocate?"

The second roundtable was hosted by Megan Xiao, head of BIT's structured business, inviting TDTC Investment Director Ding Long, B7 Capital CIO Charles, Fosun Wealth Holdings Digital Assets Director Hu Xuanfeng, and Uweb Principal Yu Jianing to explore the new phase of digital asset allocation. In the past, the concern was whether "BTC would rise," but now investors are more troubled by "being optimistic about the direction but unable to guess the timing of entry"—how to manage this price exposure and conduct multi-asset allocation through structured tools is gradually becoming a new response strategy. With this question in mind, the guests provided responses from their respective professional perspectives.

Uweb Principal Yu Jianing first approached from the perspective of investor mentality: he observed that students are transitioning from speculators to multi-asset allocators, no longer fixated on waiting for the "final drop," and summarized four main allocation lines: "carbon-silicon symbiosis, lifespan extension, quantum leap, and de-globalization." Hu from Fosun Wealth approached from the asset attributes perspective: crypto assets are evolving from "speculative concepts" to containers for packaging traditional assets on-chain, and institutional-grade custodians are the key infrastructure enabling institutions to truly engage in global asset allocation. Charles pointed out from the quantitative trading perspective that although the Sharpe ratio of crypto strategies is higher than that of traditional markets, stability is lacking, and the increasing number of market makers and institutions is squeezing arbitrage profits, while the capacity for high-frequency trading is too small; the era of simply relying on a single directional strategy to win is coming to an end, and asset allocation should retain a portion of stable yield products unrelated to Beta, rather than betting all wealth on the price itself. Ding Long from TDTC added from the industry side: "mining production assets" and "balance sheet management" are two completely different matters; miners must not only assess the stability of their power sources but also utilize structured products from platforms like BIT to manage and enhance cash flow.

Megan summarized from BIT's own structured business perspective: digital asset allocation is no longer a simple "Buy & Hold" but a dynamic management process driven by structured tools—"identifying trends" is important, but "anchoring tools and execution paths" ultimately determines whether one can traverse cycles. BIT's structured products are the concrete carriers of this "tool + path" approach: by professionalizing and productizing strategies such as volatility management and yield enhancement, ordinary investors can access structural yields that were previously only available to institutions without having to build complex positions themselves, which is one solution to the question of "how to allocate."

Closing Dialogue: Face-to-Face with Ni Da—From Federal Reserve Policies to Whether Young People Should Use Leverage

In the final segment of the forum, Elio Cui, head of BIT's brokerage business, engaged in a dialogue with renowned Web3 industry KOL and macroeconomic analyst Phyrex Ni Da, addressing several hot topics that garnered the highest attention from the audience, delving deeper into Ni Da's unique insights.

Regarding the highly anticipated policy path of the Federal Reserve and Treasury in the second half of the year, Ni Da provided a judgment that diverges from mainstream expectations: he believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to remain inactive this year—"neither raising nor lowering interest rates." Ni Da analyzed the economy from a perspective closer to people's livelihoods: from the supply chain transmission of oil prices to the impact of immigration repatriation policies on employment data, to the fact that U.S. debt levels are already too high to withstand further tightening, even the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman has quietly canceled forward guidance—various signs, in his view, point to signals of "interest rates wanting to go down."

On the most pressing market question of "why did Bitcoin suddenly rise above $80,000 in the past two days," Ni Da, as a trading veteran, provided his solid observations on market liquidity—"the trading volume of this round of increase is not particularly high; more accurately, it is that 'the number of sellers has decreased, and the number of buyers has increased,' which has pushed the price up due to an imbalance in supply and demand, rather than an explosive influx of incremental funds." When discussing the bottom of this cycle, Ni Da clearly has his own "account": he judges that the current bottom structure has basically been completed, and even if another bottom test occurs, it is likely to be only in the $57,000 to $58,000 range, with the possibility of falling below $51,000 being very low. Supporting this judgment is his observation of the flow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional holding behaviors: recent ETF funds have shifted from previous net outflows to sustained net inflows, and most high-net-worth institutions and publicly traded companies that have held Bitcoin for the long term have not shown large-scale reductions in holdings in recent months; some institutions that previously reduced their holdings have also stopped selling and turned to stabilization—these signals collectively point to institutional recognition of the current price level.

In response to the heated online debate about "should young people use leverage," Ni Da refrained from a condescending lecture. He candidly stated that for young people with limited capital, leverage is indeed one of the few realistic paths to amplify returns within their risk tolerance; however, the real challenge has never been whether to use leverage, but whether one can always maintain the ability to "stay at the table"—this is what requires long-term learning and practice. When discussing his own "cards in hand," he revealed that he has been using BIT's U.S. stock platform's options leverage and margin trading tools to invest in indices like VOO and QQQ, and it is precisely the safe and stable leverage settings on the BIT platform that allow him to enhance capital efficiency.

From macro debt cycles to stablecoin infrastructure, from public chain competitive landscapes to the real drawdown data of quantitative strategies, and from seasoned traders' candid interpretations of Federal Reserve policies and leverage philosophy, this forum excelled in professionalism, presenting a panoramic view of the next wave of investment opportunities to attending investors, institutional representatives, and industry partners. As the attending guests consistently recognized, "The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is understanding them at the right time and in the right way."

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