What is happening in global markets? Inflation forecasts rise, oil declines

In global markets, deepening sell-offs in semiconductor companies have increased pressure on technology stocks, prompting investors to turn towards sectors such as healthcare, real estate, and those reporting strong earnings. The rise in global inflation expectations and the uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision have also limited risk appetite.

Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.9%, indicating that the index is moving towards its first five-day losing streak of the year. A major exchange-traded fund tracking the semiconductor sector lost 3.7% in pre-market trading, while the decline in S&P 500 futures was more limited at 0.2%. Healthcare and real estate stocks showed a stronger performance, diverging from the sell-off in the technology sector.

In Asian markets, the pressure became more pronounced. In South Korea, shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell by over 13%, bringing the regional index close to technical correction territory. In Europe, the weekly loss for chip manufacturing equipment company ASML reached 11% following news of a potential competitor backed by the Chinese government. In contrast, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose by 0.1%. Financial results from Barclays, LVMH, and Unilever received mixed reactions from investors.

According to the latest survey, economists have raised inflation forecasts for 39 out of the 50 major economies compared to expectations in April for the year 2026. The global economy is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. Both forecasts remain at the same level as the April survey.

In the U.S., the weekly ADP employment change was reported at 15,000. The previous week's figure was 16,500. The overnight secured financing rate (SOFR) remained unchanged at 3.64%.

U.S. Treasury bonds rose ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday. While investors reduced the likelihood of additional monetary tightening within the next year, money markets continued to price in a roughly 30% chance of a rate hike at this week's meeting due to ongoing inflation risks.

Brent crude oil fell by 2.2% to $86.40 per barrel, extending its losses into a third day. The pause in mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran has reduced the geopolitical risk premium on energy prices. Markets are focused on talks regarding the reopening of maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.

OPEC+ sources indicated that the group is expected to pause production increases after September and maintain oil production steady for the remainder of 2026. The foreign ministers of Iran and Japan also discussed cooperation to address regional tensions and security issues in the Strait of Hormuz.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that his country does not accept the European Union's current budget plan. Merz noted that high spending increases at the EU level cannot be accommodated and expressed that budget discussions should be completed by the end of the year.

Merz called for a draft that includes cuts worth hundreds of billions of euros instead of a budget that increases personnel numbers. He emphasized that Germany opposes additional corporate taxes at the EU level and that efforts to reduce bureaucracy should not be slowed down.

Apple has ended its existing iPhone upgrade and iPhone payment programs in the U.S. and launched a new leasing model in collaboration with Klarna. Under the new program, iPhone models will be available starting at $17.99 per month, Apple Watch models at $11.99, and Mac computers at $24.99. Leasing options will be available for 12 to 24 months for iPhones and Apple Watches, and 24 to 36 months for Macs and iPads.

Boeing reported a loss of $0.67 per share in the second quarter. The company's revenue exceeded expectations at $24.56 billion, while adjusted free cash flow was $631 million. The market had expected the company to report a negative cash flow of $331.4 million. The results included a $280 million loss related to the VC-25B program.

In Japan, the government aims to raise the minimum wage to 1,176 yen per hour for the fiscal year 2026.

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