Web3 Carnival Micro Essay: Amidst the Winter of Prosperity, a Signature Chicken Hotpot has become the Jerusalem

From April 6 to April 9, Web3 Carnival was held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center. As a highly anticipated event in the industry, this carnival brought together the top global forces in the Web3 space. Looking at the on-site photos shared by participants, compared to the bustling crowds of previous years, this year's conference seemed noticeably more subdued.

Nevertheless, the conference was still full of true builders, with the density of core industry participants even higher than in previous years. The topics covered not only regulation, technical infrastructure and public chain ecology, AI, Depin, RWA, Payfi, crypto finance, and other Web3 industry focuses but also spanned diverse fields such as Web2 to Web3, traditional finance, academic institutions, security privacy, interactive entertainment, and industrial-grade application landing. Moreover, the 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival took the four seasons as its theme, interpreting the spirit of Web3 through the traditional Chinese poetic imagery, showcasing a unique narrative of the integration of technology and humanities.

BlockBeats has selected four insights from participants, covering market sentiment, technology trends, investment direction, and more. The full text is reprinted below:

Tu Shijun

Original title "Looking back on these three years at the Hong Kong Carnival: Enthusiasm, Disenchantment, and Transcendence"

This is a short essay about the Hong Kong web3 carnival. It may sound a bit harsh, but I want to talk about those past events and why they have been debunked.

1. Is the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival Cold?

Cold, that was also the first impression of many people. The previous conference was overcrowded, with a crowd pushing forward, but this time it was almost all familiar project teams, VIP rooms empty with no one, not many people coming to see the exhibition. Where will the liquidity and creativity come from in the future? However, there are more people wearing suits, and the underlying logic of the industry seems to be undergoing a restructuring.

The source of the cold feel, some say, comes from the strange layout of the venue, making it look empty. Some say that the preparation by Wanchain was inadequate, making it difficult to invite guests, lacking project teams. Even the price for on-stage speeches has returned to calmness, and some voices sound more like they are proving, "I am still alive, just not dead yet."

In my view, the relationship between the East and the West is still a case of a hot face against a cold bottom. There are significantly fewer Western faces. Three years in, in the field of Web3 (perhaps in many other fields as well). Even if Vitalik visited in person, apart from fan selfies and socializing, what remained was certain bald clowns who have played a role in ruining the industry unilaterally.

At the core are cultural and aspirational differences. Those who treat the achievements of web3 as a mere gambling den, relying on screenshots of snagging three bananas in each cycle, are influencing the overall direction to build more slot machines, lure more gamblers, and siphon off the acquisition efforts of builders.

In the Western public blockchain community's appeal to the East, you are mostly seen as a user rather than a partner. Is it that others are not playing along, or is there an issue within oneself? Or is it that what everyone is pursuing is not the same thing, while still hoping to play together?

2. Is RWA Right?

Every keynote speech features more than half of the slides as photo ops; when will the content catch up with the chosen titles?

RWA has become this year's mainstream narrative, but does it have a significant difference in underlying logic compared to NFTs three years ago, Inscriptions two years ago, or Memes a year ago? If you carefully examine the underlying basis of each cycle, you will find that everything, once seen from a macro perspective, will ultimately be deemed correct and just. RWA is nothing more than a shell topic for a new macro perspective.

However, in reality, grand narratives often tend to indiscriminately ignore the rights of thousands of individuals, giving a sense of "all things are for the greater good," sometimes not even for a greater good, just a number. Seizing a mainstream narrative, of course, can lead to success; Phantom seized the Sol and Meme airdrop, Bitget seized the TG ecosystem, adopted a multi-chain strategy along with the annual narrative, and their annual growth has been significant.

But achieving growth in this industry has never been a difficult task; the challenge lies in retention (adequate resources and momentum in place, which would have more of a flywheel effect than the growth explosion of the traditional Internet). What is done using blockchain is still limited and basically not a daily necessity. After the wallet wars of the past, even UniSat, which was the hottest last year, has not been opened for so long, nor does it need to be opened, adding to the melancholy.

The institutions of RWA are also facing the PPT scam of the Web2 elite halo from the last narrative wave, individuals who keep talking about "empowering the ecosystem" but have never even used a wallet. Interestingly, BTC's value does not care about narratives, which gives hope, as those who chase narratives generally cannot keep up, while those who create narratives have the opportunity to turn the tables.

3. Is V Still Good?

What kind of conspiracy is most terrifying to contemplate? I think it is turning the essence of tragedy into a trap of choices, whether it is the burning of self-destruction or the decay of slow suicide. The most terrifying part is that no matter which path you choose, it will only add shackles to the exploration on the other path. V is already standing at a difficult crossroad, and no matter which choice is made, it cannot escape either individual or collective tragedy.

Indeed, V is a genius, V's work ethic is also industry-leading, and V is very young. When it comes to the future of Ethereum, the biggest opportunity lies in such a young mind with a vision, bringing unlimited growth potential. However, behind every characteristic is a downside. Being 30 years old comes with its own drawbacks. It's too easy to be surrounded by villains and too easy to fall for sweet words.

In every speech V gives at each conference, he is fully committed to L2, which is very right, with plenty of logically consistent reasons. One of the great reasons is that the EF excels most on-chain rather than off-chain. He has endless on-chain creativity, but how to connect to the off-chain needs partners to do so. However, the EF has already run out of cake to share. So, why not leave a booth open as a platform for every project to bring its own resources? The EF gives you all the recognition you want.

But who conveyed these reasons to V? Why did it become his entrenched scaling direction? If L1 itself is good enough, why the need for an empty city like L2? What about the gap between L2s? As EF transitions to the next phase upgrade, returning to the L1 experience, the biggest resistance will no longer come from L1 itself but from the L2s. This is the current choice trap.

4. Web3 + Gaming Unwillingness but a Trap

In the dozens of conferences before and after this event, it was the web3 gaming sessions that dared to speak the truth, perhaps because there were fewer people, so there was more grounded insight. I initially entered the industry due to loot, Axie, and sneaker flipping, but now everyone is awake. Players are awake, investors are awake, and only the former obsession remains stubborn. Those still involved here can only console themselves: ecosystem positioning, defensive position, cost considerations.

There were countless good reasons in the past for games to become a good business, and even three years ago, gaming licenses were the catalyst for the explosion of web3 games. The hardware requirements of games are naturally different from other financial scenarios, so the public chain for web3 games has always been a promising direction.

However, looking at play-to-earn, on-chain, and Telegram games, they have all become traps. Because in the B-circle's game, the dopamine reward is not as good as inscribing. During inscription, who wasn't naturally waking up at 6 a.m. and struggling to fall asleep at 3 a.m.? What game can have the most pure and effective core incentive that goes straight to the heart? But if they don't attract new users to each other, all they do is inflate the data through mutual game traffic to deceive investors. It used to be just falsifying accounting data, and now it's even colluding in audits to fabricate data. Even those who invest in web3 games don't play the games themselves, they've only played Contra.

The cryptocurrency world should just focus on DeFi and not get involved in gaming. Meanwhile, gaming companies view Web3 as a new field for developing games. From Perfect World to South Korean gaming conglomerates, and now to the Western metaverse grand narrative, all are situated in the wasteland left behind by the cryptocurrency community's gaming endeavors. Throughout, it's been these overindulged users with a user base of 1 million, demanding that if a game doesn't integrate blockchain, they won't play it. And if it does integrate blockchain, they only engage with its financial aspects, leading them to instead play meme-based games.

If you try to educate external users starting from ground zero to onboard the blockchain, you'll ask yourself, "What's the point?" Educating these frustrated users—who would willingly take on such a task? However, gaming itself is indeed a lucrative business. Even miHoYo, receiving a mere 10% uplift in total revenue from the peripheral aspects of gaming, can still achieve a 70% gross margin.

Currently, one cannot find a team in the market solely focused on gaming profits. Gaming, as a product that provides emotional value, generates value even throughout its development process. This stands in stark contrast to many on-chain products that are purely results-based (such as the laborious creation of public blockchains, which lose all value if nobody engages with them).

Therefore, gaming will continue to attract some lingering investors who refuse to give up hope. With 600 million active addresses, some believe this to be the 1994 of the internet era—so let's keep accumulating while believing that thicker manure brings sweeter blooms.

5. Is the Bear Market Here?

Over these years, we've witnessed relatively bearish but not the most bearish of times. We've also experienced breakthrough periods, with each narrative experiencing moments of confusion, seemingly coinciding with events around HK conferences. Following last year's Bitcoin Asia, the market cooled, putting more pressure on project teams. With more opaque operations, it becomes increasingly difficult to think rationally. The symposium this time around may feature many familiar faces, but the projects themselves have gone through 2-3 iterations. Even though serial entrepreneurs are often mocked, they are actually more worth cherishing.

Those familiar with market cycles know that a bear market is the Builder's opportunity. With years of experience in navigating pitfalls, one now understands better what can survive. The "Enterprise Blockchain" movement was widely seen as a dead end, but with the emergence of L2 solutions, this movement has been revitalized, as exemplified by Soneium. The increasingly ineffective "decel" community can roar about how various mainstream actors are unethical and subpar, but it fails to provide better alternatives.

But these are all pitfalls. DeFi intended to replace banks, NFTs aimed to redefine ownership, and the metaverse was supposed to become the new gathering place. Yet, after billions of dollars in commitments, the only things widely used are stablecoins and their corresponding trading pairs and markets. Some say that businesses without repeat customers have a tough road ahead, requiring continuous acquisition of new users. In certain scenarios, this involves long-term after-sales service and entangling with existing customers until they go out of business. In reality, businesses with high liquidity that lack core retention strategies also face significant challenges.

In this business, the group that has suffered the most in this cycle is the new vulnerable group: VCs. They used to be the ones who guided projects, where catching a good project meant a hundredfold return. Now, they are being bled dry by project teams, with little opportunity to profit. Post-TGE token sales also benefit the project team and liquidity providers first. They no longer dare to invest further, as for every investment they make, they end up losing. Instead of attributing this to issues within the industry, it's more accurate to say it's a problem with how early-stage project teams operate. The era of building infrastructure based solely on narratives has come to an end, and projects with high valuations and low liquidity no longer have room to thrive. The valuation systems of all VC projects are being reshaped, and older projects are being reorganized.

In this new cycle, don't be too reliant on policies. While there have been significant changes in Hong Kong, the underlying sentiment remains: "We accept it as long as it doesn't mess things up." In today's market, institutions have taken over. It's no longer a landscape where small entrepreneurial ideas can challenge the status quo. You either adapt and learn this game or be phased out. Unilateral dominance is not easy to achieve. The collaboration between institutions and entrepreneurs has just begun.

6. Where Are the Opportunities Ahead?

It may seem like scolding, but those who have made mistakes deserve criticism. Once the criticism is done, it's time to return to rationality because not everything in recent years has been a total disaster. After the Mingwen incident, there was a moment of unpreparedness, but half a year later, what remained was the meticulous optimization of infrastructure. The current meme storm has also passed halfway, from Gmgn to Axiom, leaving behind products that understand user needs and are well-versed in the underlying technology of the blockchain. Many lack expertise in the underlying technology, making it impossible to achieve excellence.

Along with the sudden rise of projects like Gmgn that didn't know how to share the cake, they forced top talents to flow within the industry. Once in deep waters, a group of individuals completed user education and outreach within the industry and directed a shift towards high school academic research, laying a solid foundation for future industry talent. In terms of direction, the allure of creating a blockchain has diminished, and the focus of funds has shifted towards major protocols. While VCs have become more cautious during this time, the tools layer, catering to a clear business model and user base, has actually reached a stage where objective evaluation is possible.

Cryptography has reached its limit, and the subjects of user operations are breaking boundaries. Many real-world behaviors cannot be proven by cryptography, and not all issues can be solved through decentralization. Efficiency and technological limitations lie there, where each bottleneck represents an opportunity. The future will not always perpetuate an irreconcilable gap between centralization and decentralization. Both sides will need to compromise.

Without a clear goal in sight, what should be done is to protect one's focus, enhance the ability to discern what is trash, and maintain a positive attitude amidst the fluctuations of the cycles to live a fulfilling life.

7. In Conclusion

My disappointment with this industry is genuine and stems from overblown early expectations. The notion of creating 'web3' has been regarded as the next-generation foundational infrastructure on a grand scale. However, now, if it is seen as merely Crypto Finance 3, it becomes more rational. It's unnecessary to pay attention to endeavors that have nothing to do with crypto finance. There will always be a group of people in the world striving for freedom, and having the optimal tools and facilities for these individuals is already a significant achievement.

Dear reader, your attention is precious. Don't let others' gossip fill your life. Otherwise, when the information source for ordinary people is monopolized by Twitter KOLs and abstract communities, you will only become a "consensus cannon fodder." What is truly worth paying attention to is always those who have excelled in their field and incidentally become KOLs.

A friend (@Odyssey_Leexixi) said: Nowadays, people no longer believe in various inflated bubbles, which is also reflected in the conference. The low-hanging fruit has been picked, and everyone is now pursuing product-market fit, creating products that truly meet user needs, have cash flow, and a business model. From market dream rate to market share rate, I really like this shift because it is what I have always wanted to do.

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Princess Christine @0xsexybanana

Princess's Hong Kong meetup insights:

1. VCs Losing Influence, Becoming the Saddest Existence in This Cycle.

Project parties are manufacturers, KOLs are live streamers, and Binance is the Tmall Marketplace. The market has entered a stage where project parties directly find KOLs to promote and sell coins on Binance. VC endorsements have lost their promotional value. VCs: bought in at worse prices and have longer lock-up periods than anyone else. Some VCs have started transitioning to become marketing agencies, moved to the secondary market, or downsized.

2. Industry Moving from Hype to Reality.

People have actually started thinking about PMF, CAC, revenue, and other extremely practical issues. This is the beginning of the era where good money drives out bad money.

3. Many Tracks That Seem Alive Are Actually Dead.

Confirmed dead tracks: Gamefi
Narratives in decline: BTCfi, modularity, DeFi 2.0
Narratives struggling to resist decline: AI, TON
Stable and improving narratives: RWA, payment Pay-fi like @0xinfini, and Consumer Apps

4. Project Founders Have Become Down-to-Earth.

They have styled their hair like Gen Z, and started mingling with the younger generation. After all, they are the wealthiest and most dynamic group in this market.

5. One-Pot Chicken Hotpot Becomes Jerusalem.

The main venue is deserted, while the sub-venues, represented by spicy crab under the bridge and one-pot chicken hotpot, are bustling. If no one invites you to chicken hotpot and spicy crab, then you are most likely not part of this inner circle.

6, Everyone is a Super Individual.

Everyone is acting as a key opinion leader (KOL), every KOL is acting as a marketing agency. Every agency is trying to establish a direct connection with the project team to gain more influence.

7, Having a Chinese Girlfriend is the Fastest Way to Practice Chinese.

Xiao V fluently spoke Chinese for an hour at the GCC event. More fluent than at the 2049 event last year. This indicates that the fastest way to master a language is through dating.

8, The Turn of the Era, The Division of Crowds.

The ancient godfathers, with their bellies full, toasting and disappearing into the background, resolving enmities with a smile. The newly arrived beautiful female KOLs sing melodious songs, their smiles as bright as flowers, and the female groups sing and dance, embellishing peace. Soldiers have no constant position, water has no constant shape. Everything is changing. Here, nothing is eternal.

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ZTZZ ฿ @ZTZZBTC

I basically don't attend those crowded large-scale events; I mostly focus on gathering projects for private discussions. This time I attended the BN event for a whole night, and I missed the BG event. I saw many interesting things, and I also communicated with several bosses. Today, I took some time to write about my impressions of Hong Kong and reflections on the industry:

1. There are too many so-called "KOLs" in the industry, and they can be divided into three categories:

The first category consists of people with true insights and skills, where being a KOL is just a side gig. This round has brought them good results, and they will ascend to higher stages in the industry in the future. The second category includes KOLs who made some money during the bull market but spent most of it. Relying on their large following, they cling to the project teams and conspiracy groups, appearing to be the clever ones in the KOL group. They excel at creating group topics to attract traffic. Generally, they are more anxious, feeling the vulnerability of their moats for the first time. The third category comprises those who have just become KOLs, unable to get advertisements, a large number of hangers-on, bordering on female flower vases, etc., extremely anxious. They have no skills but manage to attend events forcefully, "pretending to be there."

2. The quality of this generation of KOLs is far inferior to the KOLs of 2017-2018. Looking back, the knowledge, drive for disruption, and even the foresight of the 17-18 KOLs placed them at the top tier in the internet arena.

3. It's still the old saying: People whose main identity is a KOL are basically not worth following. People in the crypto industry who have their main jobs and are willing to share can be observed. Especially, KOLs who have reached the top of the industry and share methodologies should be focused on. I really don't want to talk much about KOLs; there isn't much to talk about. At the BN event, I met a few veteran VCs, one of whom came up to me and said, "There are so many people, I don't know anyone, can you introduce me?" I just quietly replied, "I don't know them either, and I don't need to know them. 90% of these people will disappear without a trace in 3 years, and the rest, we will naturally get to know." Then, we both burst into laughter. Bull markets and bear markets are the best filtering machines in the crypto world.

Let's Talk About the Project Team:

4. As expected, true talents shine in the fire. Interesting projects and teams have started to emerge during the bear market. However, the next hot trend is not yet clear. Also, many VCs have lost a lot of money, so now everyone is in a cautious investment state. If you are a new entrepreneurial project team, do not give up thinking and do not stop working hard. I originally wanted to say some motivational words here, but I typed and deleted them. I can only condense it into one sentence: "Wish you good luck!"

5. Most of the people entering the circle in this round of projects are highly educated individuals, and their commonalities are quite evident, which we will discuss in the next article. The grassroots heroes of the crypto world have indeed become fewer.

6. Some projects are still alive but already dead. Many project owners are eagerly seeking exit routes.

As for the Trading Platform:

7. In fact, the biggest challenge faced by most is an organizational structure problem. This is an insurmountable issue that every large company faces. Simply put, the leadership knows what needs to be done but does not know how to execute it. The execution team knows how to implement but does not know what they are doing.

8. A veteran project owner once said, "MEME, this thing, is almost incomprehensible to people over 30 years old outside the circle. Older people in the circle react slower but will try to understand." If you understand these two points, think about the recent activities of Justin Sun and CZ. You should then understand why Binance is the world's largest exchange and why it stands strong.

9. There is indeed an opportunity for overtaking in the on-chain trading platform race. It shouldn't be just some BOT robot. The ultimate form of this product is still unclear, but the moment this thing truly emerges, it will be like a supernova explosion, bringing impact and challenge to the dominance of CEX trading platforms.

As for VCs:

10. After this bull-bear cycle, surviving veteran VCs in the crypto world are basically hard to defeat, belonging to top-tier institutions that have firmly established themselves in the crypto world. Please respect these individuals.

11. For those who have invested in bad projects, quickly talk to the project team and see if there is any way to piece together a path for an exit strategy.

12. I know there isn't much to invest in the market. Some friends have turned their attention to WEB2. However, please be cautious when investing in people who come from WEB2 to the crypto world. They have pitfalls to navigate in project execution and implementation. Moreover, most of these project teams do not have a sense of belonging and identity. They have listened to too many "experts" and when they run into trouble, their first thought is to run back to WEB2 after burning VC's money.

13: VCs cannot invest in MEME, but they can invest in MM and in conspiracy groups.

13.5: Travel more, traveling doesn't lose money! How about traveling with me?

As for Retail Investors:

14: Do not be a retail investor; they live without knowing why and die without knowing for whom.

15: A word of advice, based on my offline teaching experience. There are now too many retail investors, and their only sources of information are the community and Twitter. The community is filled with abstractions and noise, and you hardly ever encounter true industry leaders. The quality of the community is a hundred levels below that of 2017 and 2018. Twitter is also not a good channel because there are too many garbage KOLs, and you cannot discern their level or how they make money. Discerning KOLs is a low-return activity. Spend more time thinking, learning, connecting with real industry leaders, and showcasing yourself! The greatness of the crypto world lies in the fact that as long as you are excellent, you will always have the opportunity to reach the top. The top will always humble themselves to listen to those below. The towering "Tree of Building a Road to Heaven" has never been cut down.

16: Do not be a retail investor; they live without knowing why and die without knowing for whom.

A Few Random Thoughts:

The industry has basically stabilized, and opportunities have diminished. Many top bosses have already taken a break. However, mid-to-senior-level experts, driven by passion and a pursuit of life, are still shining brightly. It's very enjoyable to chat with them because we don't need to discuss projects or partnerships. By discussing our past accomplishments, we can understand each other's capabilities and reliability. The candlestick charts record our lives, connect us, and this is the unique charm of the blockchain.

Too many newcomers are being distracted by noise to focus on meaningless projects and KOLs. However, detours are always necessary. I never look down on KOLs. They are also part of the ecosystem, attracting retail investors is necessary in the crypto industry.
I am happy to have met many outstanding juniors who are about to take the stage.

At a private gathering, while drinking in the evening, a certain boss brought a BD girl, who kept wanting to go to the adjacent gathering to meet some "big shots." The boss said: "Can those 'big shots' next door help you make money? To them, you might just be a good-looking young girl, and they might just want you there for a drink and some fun."

The girl was a bit upset but didn't say much. I could tell she didn't understand, so I said to her: "Your job is to maintain major clients; it's understandable that you meet those people, as it's part of your job. But what you're doing fundamentally earns you a salary. Because you, as a person, don't have the ability to connect with those bosses next door; you don't even know who among them are the real bosses and who has money."

A young girl who just graduated from graduate school, nodding as if she understood. I look at her, seeing a reflection of my past. To become stronger, to become valuable, to use one's own value to connect with others, create new value, and then slowly move to a higher ecological position. This is the only thing that should be done in the coin circle, the only path to success.

The Hong Kong conference has ended, the focus, core, and future of the industry have never been in a high-end chicken hotpot restaurant, nor in a nightclub or KTV. The true value only exists at the intersection of the path of pioneers. They chat casually in a coffee shop, confirm they are the right people, and can then collide to spark new ideas and bring forth new value.

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AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB

The winter under the prosperity of singing and dancing?

1. This should be the coldest Hong Kong conference to attend. Friends who run exhibitions generally complain that it's difficult to attract investment this year, while media friends complain that there are fewer orders from projects.

2. Many peers who have come out of major companies this year more or less have some thoughts about returning to work at exchanges. Although the salary is fixed and it's quite routine, the advantage is that someone pays you a salary + working at a major platform gives you face. Once again confirming the saying that during a bull market, people want to speculate, and during a bear market, people want to work.

3. Project teams that completed their token issuance a few years ago are considering what to do during this bear market so that they can issue tokens again in the next bull market. Recently, the older brothers who issued tokens are basically at their wits' end, as if everything they do is wrong.

4. This year, VC peers are also showing a polarized state. For example, the projects they previously invested in were all overvalued and were hit hard by the market in this wave. However, many new projects encountered later have very low valuations.

5. The event where CZ and Vitalik appeared at the same time unexpectedly saw CZ being more popular than V. When everyone rushed to take photos with CZ, he joked that you should also go find Vitalik.

6. Last year, when everyone was debating whether Ethereum had a problem, this year there seems to be a complete consensus. Whether at Vitalik's appearance on-site or in private occasions, there are questions and discussions everywhere.

7. Asked a few market makers and institutions, most are watching ETH drop below 800 in this wave, mainly betting on the panic exit of people from the DeFi lending and ICO era. However, in June 2022, everyone had the same view, and eventually it touched 880.

8. This year, the number of European and American white foreign participants at the conference is noticeably fewer, even in technical sessions, the proportion of foreigners is lower. Two years ago, everyone was very FOMO about the Hong Kong story, willing to come specifically from afar. This year, it seems that the enthusiasm of that time is no longer present.

9. This time, I met many older brothers who are in the rug-pull game. To some extent, some of these older brothers have indeed changed their family's economic situation through rug-pulling. From the end of last year to early this year's coin issuance season, although the rug-pull may have buried some studios, it has also enriched a group of people.

10. Although the progress of Hong Kong's compliance is still somewhat difficult to assess, Hong Kong has become an interesting cryptocurrency hub where undercurrents surge. Many project teams who cannot return have generally come from Singapore, while the coin traders generally come from the mainland, leading to many interesting frictions and collisions between them.

11. Some top Chinese bloggers, in their industry layout, are not only in the cryptocurrency circle but also involved in streetwear, medical aesthetics, and Hong Kong-listed companies, gradually forming a substantial industrial network. This aspect is becoming more and more similar to European and American brokerage and investment firms.

The above is the observation of this Hong Kong conference. Finally, I can continue to sit in front of the computer. I will also share more information with everyone at any time. Thank you for reading.

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