US Polling Firm Admits to Manipulation, Controversy Over Kalshi Settlement Rules

The US polling firm Wedgwood has admitted to manipulating election survey results, leading to controversy over the settlement rules of the prediction market platform Kalshi. On the 20th, Wedgwood stated that it had manipulated most of its polls. These survey results are used as the official settlement criteria for some Kalshi prediction market contracts by the data provider BotheHub. The research organization FiftyPlusOne raised suspicions of manipulation by requesting the raw data from the Mississippi Senate election poll. Discrepancies were found in the survey results, and significant differences were confirmed in comparative survey results. Kalshi's regulatory documents specify contracts that use the average values of BotheHub's polls as the settlement criteria, and include a provision that states that even if the underlying indicators are revised after the contract expires, they will not be reflected in the final settlement value. Therefore, even if manipulation is confirmed, the existing settlement results may be maintained. So far, there is no public evidence that Wedgwood's manipulated survey results have affected the settlement of specific Kalshi contracts. CryptoSlate analyzed that Kalshi needs to disclose the rules applicable to October contracts and the settlement review process in case of false data discovery.

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