Tariff Storm: Opening a New Narrative Space for Crypto

By: blockbeats|2025/04/11 13:00:03
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原文标题:Crypto's Edge in a Tariff World
原文作者:@ManoppoMarco,@primitivecrypto 投资人
原文编译:zhouzhou,BlockBeats

编者按:在全球贸易战加剧、关税频出的大环境下,加密货币因其去中心化、抗审查、无国界等特性,再次展现出作为「混乱避风港」的潜力。历史和现实表明,关税往往带来经济衰退与市场动荡,而加密正在悄然构建一个不受传统规则束缚的新型经济系统,为个体提供更高的主权选择。

以下为原文内容(为便于阅读理解,原内容有所整编):


随着贸易战重塑全球经济格局,加密货币再次迎来了证明其「动荡避风港」角色的机会。

背景介绍


「疯狂在个体中是罕见的,但在群体、政党、国家和时代中却是常态。」——弗里德里希·尼采

市场当前动荡不安。正如新加坡总理黄循财所说,美国实际上正在放弃自己一手建立的经济体系。曾经是全球经济体系基石的结构,如今正被逐步拆解。如果局势迟迟得不到解决,我们可以合理预期将会有更多的东西随之崩塌。

加密货币一向是宏观驱动型资产。比特币支持者今年反复强调的核心观点之一就是「主权」。


比特币作为一种资产,是应对地缘政治不确定性的对冲工具——因为它是最硬的货币形式,比黄金还「硬」(理论上)。不过到目前为止,这一理论并没有兑现。比特币的价格走势更像纳斯达克的高 beta 资产,在动荡时期反而被黄金远远甩开。


这一次,会有所不同吗?

Tariff Storm: Opening a New Narrative Space for Crypto

简单说说「关税」这事儿


如果你想见识什么叫「智力自慰」,那就赶紧打开 Twitter——特别是在这种风口浪尖的时刻,每个人都突然成了宏观经济专家。


我不打算再把你的大脑搅成一锅粥,所以我们先看看一些基本事实和观察结论。

关税,本质上会制造低效、推高消费者价格、扭曲自由市场机制,并引发报复性经济行为,最终导致冲突升级。

一个典型案例发生在上世纪 80 年代。当时的美国总统里根,虽然一开始对某些行业征收了关税,但后来也意识到它的弊端。在 1987 年的一次广播演讲中,里根直言:「保护主义最终就是破坏主义;它会让人失业。」

为什么关税不是什么好事

首先,川普政府目前实施的实际关税水平,已经是过去 100 多年来的最高点——但反对它的理由远不止这一点:

经济影响与通货膨胀


归根结底,关税就是对进口商品加的税,这笔钱由本国的进口商支付,最后通常会转嫁给消费者。历史和现实中的例子都反复证明:关税会直接导致消费者价格上涨。

举个例子,美国税务基金会表示,最近的美国关税政策将导致每个家庭平均增加超过 2100 美元的税负。耶鲁大学的预算实验室甚至估算,这个数字可能会涨到每年 3800 美元。瑞银(UBS)还预测,仅仅是一个 10% 的全面关税,就可能让股市下跌 10%。

对贸易逆差的误解


支持关税的人经常拿「贸易逆差太大」当理由,但其实,贸易逆差并不等于一个国家经济有问题或者被「剥削」。

贸易逆差的本质只是:一个国家进口的东西比出口的多。造成这种情况的原因,往往是因为国内消费需求旺盛、货币强势,或者该国在服务业上有比较优势而不是商品出口。

比如美国,一直在金融、科技、高端制造等高附加值服务领域保持巨额顺差。现在为了「平衡」商品贸易逆差去征收关税,尤其是在很多国家本身就买不起美国产品的前提下,只会让美国本国消费者多花冤枉钱。

像柬埔寨、基里巴斯这样的国家,就是典型例子。它们的贸易逆差之所以存在,是因为这些国家太穷,根本买不起美国货,而不是因为它们在进行所谓「不公平」的贸易行为。

历史上的关税教训


从历史来看,保护主义关税往往带来的不是经济繁荣,而是经济衰退。

典型例子包括 1828 年的《关税法案》和臭名昭著的 1930 年《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》。后者在当时引发了一连串报复性关税,导致全球贸易量锐减,进一步加剧了大萧条带来的经济苦难。

经济学家普遍认为,历史也一再证明:关税往往弊大于利。

甚至就连常被视为川普关税政策「灵感来源」的麦金莱总统,在任期末期也开始反对关税,承认其对经济的不良影响。

低效与就业神话


支持关税的人还常说它能「振兴制造业」和「带来就业」。但现实是,现代制造业早已高度自动化、依赖资本密集型运作——即使工厂真的搬回美国,也不再需要那么多工人。

随着全球自动化程度不断提升,靠加征关税把制造业拉回本土,根本不可能带来政客口中那种「就业大爆发」。

现实中,大多数制造商只是默默吸收更高的成本,或略微调整供应链,转向其他成本较低但效率略逊的国家。而这些操作,最终并没有为美国本土带来太多新增岗位。

意想不到的后果,往往是经济停滞甚至下滑。比如阿根廷,在庇隆主义时期推行保护主义政策,结果从曾经世界最富有的国家之一,滑入长期经济衰败,至今未能真正复苏。

全球贸易中的战略风险


关税往往会在不经意间强化地缘政治对手的地位,因为它会导致全球贸易格局的重组。历史已经反复证明,贸易战对全球来说都是有害的:经济缩水、供应链混乱、消费者福祉严重受损。

比如,川普最近大范围征收关税的做法,不仅推高了美国国内的物价,还无意中让中国获利。因为关税打击了越南等原本作为「中国替代选项」的国家,反而可能把生产又逼回中国——毕竟中国仍拥有规模经济和成熟的制造体系,即使面临高关税,也依然具备竞争力。

更麻烦的是,关税很容易引发贸易伙伴的报复行动,引爆贸易战。比如欧盟已经暗示可能会对美国科技公司实施反制关税,这让更大范围的经济冲突风险不断上升。

市场讨厌不确定

市场最怕的,就是不确定性,而关税恰恰就是制造不确定的最大源头之一。川普最近宣布新一轮关税后,市场剧烈震荡,股市波动明显加剧。

零售、科技、消费品和制造业板块首当其冲,不仅原材料成本要涨,消费者支出预期也被拉低。

此外,关税政策还削弱了外界对美元的信心,导致资本流入减少,美元走弱,引发更广泛的经济不稳定。这种波动不仅打击消费者和企业信心,还会抑制投资,进一步拖累经济增长。

国家安全的误区


国家安全的确是为数不多可以合理使用关税的理由之一,但现实中的关税政策却被广泛滥用,这极大削弱了「国家安全」这个说法本该具备的公信力。

眼下的关税制度并没有聚焦于保护关键产业,反而几乎对所有进口商品一视同仁地加税,结果是:不仅战略性行业被伤害了,非战略领域也跟着受累,整体成本全面上升。

加密货币:混乱时代的避风港


关税和贸易战其实在不断提醒我们:国家,归根结底是一群人组成的部落,这群人会做出情绪化、带有利益偏向的决策——哪怕从更大的角度看,这些决策并不理性。

而在这种环境下,加密货币就显得格外重要。它代表了真正意义上的个体资产主权,是全球化混乱中最纯粹的「经济自主权」形式。

可以说,Crypto 就是一种为混乱而生的超级数字经济系统。

Ray Dalio 说得很对:贸易冲突往往不是真正关于贸易,而是关于身份、民族自尊、内政压力和情绪化博弈。在这些「表层噪音」之下,加密正在悄悄建立一个没有边界、没有关税、没有官僚壁垒的新型经济结构。

传统政府在统计经济盈亏时,连数字服务和无形资产都很难追踪清楚,而加密已经把这件事推向了一个全新的维度:它完全超越了国界、政策和物理世界的束缚。

当然,从技术角度来看,我们还需要探索如何把链上的属性和现实商业模型真正结合起来(参考我之前写的思路),但这个过程已经在进行中。

最后总结一句话:当这个世界越来越不确定、各国政府的行为也越来越难预测,全球范围内的「主权个体」该如何决定自己的资源配置?

原文链接

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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