Standard Chartered Expects Average Gold Price to Reach $4,650 in Q4

Standard Chartered Bank stated that after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, gold did not continue to weaken, and the negative correlation between gold and real interest rates is diminishing. The bank expects the average gold price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to reach $4,650 per ounce, up from the current average of about $4,350 in the third quarter. Suki Cooper, head of global commodities research at Standard Chartered, pointed out that factors such as de-dollarization, currency depreciation, and official sector purchases of gold are supporting gold prices. Data shows that the correlation coefficients of gold with the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are close to -20% and -10%, respectively, and the negative correlation with the 2-year and 5-year real yields has also significantly weakened. Inflows into gold ETFs continue to recover, with a monthly inflow of 121 tons in August, the highest since September 2025. Standard Chartered believes that the current speculative positions in gold are not significantly crowded, and profit-taking ahead of the September Federal Reserve meeting has partially reduced long exposure, thus limiting further selling pressure after the rate hike. However, the dollar remains the main risk facing gold in the short term, with expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December and maintaining rates unchanged throughout 2027. Cooper stated that the negative correlation between gold and the dollar is significantly stronger than that with real interest rates, and if the dollar strengthens further, it may create short-term pressure on gold prices.

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