Sonic and Manic Unveil Wallet Evaluation Method After Analyzing 3.36 Million Predictions

Sonic SVM and Manic have released an open-source framework called the 'Trader Intelligence Framework (TIF)' to evaluate the judgment accuracy of prediction market traders. TIF reconstructs and refines 3.36 million position data from past trades on Polymarket, of which approximately 545,000 data points have confirmed entry prices and settlement results. TIF assesses traders' performance not by profit and loss scale but by the degree of alignment between judgment and outcome. Verification results show that the follow-up buy price prediction accuracy of wallets in the top 20% of TIF scores is about four times higher than that of wallets of the same size based on cumulative profit and loss. This framework broadens the ranking of traders from profit and loss scale to the reproducibility of judgment, and the scoring rules and validation code of TIF are publicly available, allowing external users to verify the evaluation methods and procedures. The 'smart money' wallets and real-time signals and alert features based on TIF have been applied to Manic Trade's discovery page. Sonic SVM and Manic plan to expand TIF to more trading platforms.

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