Only 3% of Polymarket Traders Account for 27% of Total Profits
A university study shows that only 3% of Polymarket accounts account for 27% of the total dollar profits of traders. This study, conducted by Yale University and the London Business School, analyzed the performance of 1.72 million accounts across 210,322 markets. The results indicate that only a small fraction of traders consistently outperform chance. Ties Jensen, an economist at Yale University, predicts that as competition increases, the share of skilled traders will drop to less than 1%. Jensen also notes that increased competition leads to more accurate pricing. Julie Hoover, an analyst at Bank of America, believes that the narrowing of bid-ask spreads makes finding profitable opportunities more difficult. However, specialized traders in specific markets can maintain their edge. Researchers also believe that even traders without a sustainable advantage may benefit from more accurate pricing. The increase in trading volume from institutions also boosts the revenue of prediction platforms, and it is expected that trading advantages will shift to specialized firms and advanced funds.
-- Price
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