DRAM Shortage Until 2030: How to Position Yourself on Memory Giants?

A Memory Supercycle That Lasts

During the groundbreaking ceremony for its future factory in Indiana, SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung stated that he sees no clear signs of a cycle reversal and anticipates a memory shortage until the end of 2030.

Beyond SK Hynix, analysts are echoing this sentiment: Morgan Stanley speaks of a "memory supercycle," Bank of America has pushed its scenario to 2030, and Deloitte mentions a "RAMageddon" where new production capacities would not arrive before 2029 or 2030.

The cause of this tension is mechanical: HBM (high bandwidth memory used in AI chips) and traditional DRAM come from the same factories and compete for the same silicon wafers. Since HBM is much more profitable and concentrates nearly three times more capacity per bit, manufacturers prioritize it, which dries up the supply of traditional DRAM.

As a result, DRAM prices are skyrocketing. In the second quarter of 2026, their contractual prices surged by 58 to 63% in just one quarter according to TrendForce, the largest increase in 10 years. A 64 GB server module thus rose from about $450 at the end of 2025 to over $900 at the beginning of 2026. The pace is now slowing, but TrendForce still anticipates increases until the end of the year.

The Three Giants That Are Winning

The DRAM market is an oligopoly: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron together control over 95% of global production. In the HBM segment, the most strategic part of the AI cycle, SK Hynix dominates with about 60% market share and the status of preferred supplier to Nvidia.

This surge is directly reflected in the accounts: in the first quarter of 2026, SK Hynix surpassed 50 trillion won in revenue (about $35 billion) for the first time, with operating profit multiplied by 5 year-on-year and a record operating margin of 72%. Micron, on the other hand, reported a record gross margin of over 80% in its third fiscal quarter, which ended in late May 2026.

On the stock market, prices have followed the same growth: in 2025, Micron's stock surged by about 240%, Samsung more than doubled, and SK Hynix's market capitalization nearly quadrupled. However, these values have significantly corrected since their peaks, a reminder that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Should One Expose Themselves to the Memory Sector?

SK Hynix's optimism should be taken with a grain of caution: as the world's leading seller of HBM, the company has every interest in maintaining the narrative of a shortage that boosts its prices and justifies its heavy investments. However, its diagnosis is corroborated by independent analysts, and the demand is indeed real.

For an investor looking to ride the AI wave, memory remains one of the most direct bets: unlike many stocks in the sector, orders are concrete and often contracted several years in advance.

Caution is still warranted, as memory is a historically cyclical industry, and new factories expected from 2028 could eventually ease price pressure. The sector is also very volatile: Samsung and SK Hynix lost 23 to 35% in a month this summer due to price concerns before Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy recommendation.

Additionally, there is the threat of Chinese competition. CXMT in DRAM, whose revenue surged by about 700% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, and YMTC in NAND are ramping up with new factories, to the point where CXMT is already catching up to Micron in production capacity.

However, the threat mainly weighs on traditional DRAM, less so on HBM, the most profitable segment, where the three giants maintain several years of lead.

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