Is Solana About to Recover? Analyzing On-Chain MEME Whale Movement

By: blockbeats|2025/04/16 17:00:02
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Original Article Title: "Local Frenzy or Full Recovery? Data Analysis of Solana Chain MEME Whale Activity and Market Divergence"
Original Article Author: Frank, PANews

The MEME market seems to have heated up once again, starting in mid-March, with Fartcoin starting to rebound from its low, experiencing an approximately 349% increase over about a month, reaching a peak total market value of nearly 9.85 billion US dollars. At the same time, the on-chain activity of MEME whales has also attracted attention, with some whales investing millions of dollars in Fartcoin, RFC, and other MEME coins, leading to a rapid increase in related token market values.

Behind these movements, on April 11, the number of active addresses on the Solana chain once again surpassed 5.1 million, nearing the peak level seen in January.

Is Solana About to Recover? Analyzing On-Chain MEME Whale Movement

The minor outbreak of this MEME market rally, is it a return of the MEME bull market or a speculative resurgence in a boring market environment? PANews conducted data analysis on the large holder addresses of several recently surging MEME coins in hopes of finding some clues.

Fartcoin Analysis: Whale Entry in Mid-March, Average Cost Around $0.62

Firstly, after observing several previously high market cap tokens, PANews found that this round of MEME frenzy is not universal but rather concentrated in a few specific tokens. Most of the MEME tokens that previously had market caps over a billion (such as Trump, BONK, WIF, POPCAT) are still in a decline or bottoming phase. Among the tokens observed by PANews, except for Fartcoin, the other tokens are either new coins created in the past 1 to 2 months or tokens that have been lukewarm since their issuance. Here are several tokens observed by PANews: RFC, Fartcoin, ALCH, GOHOME, DARK, House, FAT.

The token selection criterion is a market cap ranging from 10 million to over 100 million US dollars, with tokens that have experienced significant increases or rebounds in the past 1 to 3 months. Among these, RFC has seen the largest increase, with a maximum increase of 54 times in the past month.

The leading token of this round is Fartcoin, which, after hitting a low on March 10, began a new upward trend. Its market cap once reached 9.48 billion US dollars, once again becoming the leader of the MEME trend.

Analysis of the first-time purchase time of whales reveals that the collective entry time of whales in this round started from mid-March and continued until April 10, with whale entry maintaining an upward trend.

Fartcoin Whale Entry Time Distribution

In terms of cost, the initial purchases of the top 1000 whales are mostly concentrated between $0.2-$0.6 and $0.6-$0.9. Looking at the Fartcoin chart, the percentage of whales still trapped above $1 is relatively small. Overall analysis shows that the current holding whales mostly entered the market after the price low on March 12.

Fartcoin Whale Holding Cost Distribution

In total, the average holding cost of Fartcoin whales' initial purchases is about $0.62. Based on the current price of $0.844, these new whales have an average profit margin of about 36%.

23% of Addresses Have Cross-Asset Holdings, DARK and RFC Replay the Same Story

Looking at the overall picture, by comparing the top 1000 whale holders of these tokens, it is found that 23% of whale addresses hold at least 2 or more different tokens. Among them, the most held token by whales is DARK, a token with the shortest creation time, but 116 whales hold this token repeatedly.

Next, RFC has the highest number of repeat occurrences, reaching 110 times. Fartcoin has recently received high market attention and also has the highest market value among the analyzed tokens, but it has only appeared 76 times in repetitions. However, according to PANews analysis, the reason for this may be that Fartcoin's market value has already risen to a relatively high level, and many large holders have exited or switched tokens. As specific historical information of whale holdings at a particular time cannot be tracked, we currently cannot provide a definitive answer.

However, from the analysis of RFC and DARK, it seems that these two tokens have a somewhat similar storyline.

First of all, let's look at the candlestick chart trends of the two. Apart from the difference in creation time, the trends, including pullback patterns, tend to be similar.

Furthermore, the data on whale holdings of these two tokens are also quite similar, both being above 110. In a more detailed analysis, PANews observed that there are 75 addresses simultaneously holding the DARK and RFC tokens, which is the largest number in the whale holding combinations. The next is the Fartcoin and House combination, with 35 addresses simultaneously holding these two tokens.

Looking further into the timing of these addresses holding RFC and DARK simultaneously, most whale addresses initially bought these two tokens on April 13th and April 14th, respectively.

From the perspective of the candlestick chart trends, April 13th was precisely the date of RFC's rapid surge, with a one-day increase of 65% and a swing of 107%. On April 14th, DARK saw a similar market movement, with a one-day increase of 80% and a swing of 218%. This significant surge one after another appears to be a coordinated pumping action.

Whale First Purchase Distribution Date of RFC

Whale First Purchase Distribution Date of DARK

Of course, it is worth noting that the market value of RFC reached as high as $138 million, while DARK's peak market value was only $23 million. It seems that the whales behind these tokens are not the absolute dominant force in the market, or the whales' expectations for these two tokens are not the same. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that DARK will replicate RFC's market value.

Additionally, tokens such as Fartcoin and House or DARK and House appear frequently in whale holdings.

“Artificial Bull” Embraces MEME Culture and AI

In the overall data, the total holding amount of these whale addresses with repeated holdings in these 7 tokens is approximately $100 million (excluding holdings by major exchanges such as Gate, Bitget, Raydium), accounting for 8.47% of the market value of these tokens.

As of early April 16, these tokens have also experienced a certain degree of pullback. Among them, FAT has retraced by 72.51% from its peak, House has retraced by 50%, with an overall average retracement of 37.12%. Among them, only ALCH has seen a smaller retracement, which, from its nature, is the only AI-related token with practical applications. However, from a cyclical perspective, ALCH may just happen to be in a phase of market rotation without entering a selling cycle.

Behind this MEME rotation surge, there seems to be some traces of an artificial MEME bull market. KOL @MasonCanoe stated on Twitter that the whale address responsible for the rise in RFC is associated with addresses that have engaged in market-making activities for previous tokens such as TRUMP, VIRTUAL, LIBRA, and is also associated with several addresses that were early stakeholders in RFC. Based on this, @MasonCanoe believes that the pump in RFC is by no means accidental and may be a signal of careful positioning by large funds.

From a data perspective, MEME on Solana's blockchain does seem to be once again capturing market attention under the impetus of some whales. However, since this driving effect cannot benefit all MEME tokens, it can only be judged by tracking the real-time dynamics of these main funds. Additionally, from the classification of several tokens, tokens with cat, dog, and frog themes seem to have not occupied a significant position in the recent surge, mainly with AI and MEME culture tokens showing outstanding performance.

Overall, this recent MEME craze on Solana's blockchain has not blossomed across the board but has been highly concentrated on a few specific tokens, with Fartcoin as the leader attracting a large number of new high-net-worth individuals who entered the market in mid-March. Of greater note is the fact that behind the trends of RFC and DARK, two highly similar tokens, there are numerous overlapping whale addresses holding both tokens, with their main buying times concentrated around the sharp surges on April 13 and 14, strongly implying possible coordinated actions or main fund rotation behavior. This surge seems to be not purely a result of organic market behavior but carries traces of an "artificial bull market," and whether this "artificial rain" can evolve into natural capital inflows is still to be observed.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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