Forbes: Cryptocurrency Will Be Redefined by 2025

Original Article Title: 7 Reasons Why 2025 Could Redefine Crypto

Original Article Author: Nina Bambysheva, Forbes

Original Article Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

Crypto winter? Over. The decline of the crypto empire and courtroom drama? Things of the past. Survivors? Tested in the battlefield, with a keen eye, as if this were a new gold rush.

After years of conflict with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have finally arrived. According to the cryptocurrency research firm K33 Research, as of December 16, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF held assets worth $129 billion, surpassing the $125 billion of gold ETFs.

The post-election market excitement in the U.S., coupled with Donald Trump's promise to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, led to Bitcoin briefly surpassing $100,000.

Solana is seeing development opportunities, thanks to the rise of memecoin hype and new narratives like DePIN. DePIN is a network that uses blockchain technology to decentralize control and ownership of physical infrastructure. Platforms like Polymarket (where users can bet on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election) and the survival game Off The Grid have already found success in the mainstream market. A new wave of "degens" are betting on tokens like fartcoin and dogwifhat, both of which currently have market capitalizations exceeding $1 billion.

Rob Hadick, a general partner at the San Francisco-based cryptocurrency venture capital firm Dragonfly, said: "This year, cryptocurrency entered the mainstream consciousness in a way not seen since 2021, and now it is a sustainable, long-term asset class that will have a voice and play a significant role." "If you only look at the impact of cryptocurrency on elections, whether it's cryptocurrency political donations or its promotion among legislative bodies and presidential candidates, this is unprecedented, and it represents a major step forward in cryptocurrency legalization."

Donald Trump at the 2024 Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo Source: The Washington Post

With Trump and a cohort of crypto-friendly officials preparing to take office, the so-called "Cryptocurrency Golden Age" is upon us. Here are the emerging trends:

All-Time Highs and Bitcoin Reserves in the U.S.

The art of making bold price predictions is back in vogue. Cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise predicts that if the U.S. were to establish a strategic reserve similar to oil or gold, Bitcoin's price could reach $200,000, or even $500,000. The logic is that the official U.S. Bitcoin reserves would trigger global FOMO.

At the July Nashville Bitcoin Conference, Trump proposed using 200,000 bitcoins confiscated from criminals (worth $21 billion) to kickstart the reserve. However, the legal path is still unclear—whether it requires congressional approval or if the executive branch can act unilaterally. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a cryptocurrency advocate, proposed a reserve scheme operated by the Treasury Department in July. Skeptics argue that Bitcoin's volatility could destabilize the financial system. Trump has remained silent on whether the U.S. will continue to purchase more Bitcoin in the open market, further adding to the fog.

Cryptocurrency Regulation Reset: Crypto-Friendly Washington

The new administration is poised to be the most crypto-friendly government to date. Some key government appointments related to cryptocurrency include:

· Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC): Former SEC Commissioner and cryptocurrency supporter Paul Atkins is set to replace cryptocurrency foe Gary Gensler, who was known for lawsuits and enforcement actions against crypto companies during his tenure.

· Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): Andreessen Horowitz's policy head and former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz is a top contender to lead the agency.

· Treasury Department: Hedge fund billionaire and Bitcoin advocate Scott Bessent is Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary.

· Department of Commerce: Cantor Fitzgerald's CEO Howard Lutnik, the primary custodian of Tether's USDT reserves, will lead the department.

· AI and Crypto Tsar: David Sacks, a longtime venture capitalist who also worked with Elon Musk at PayPal, will be overseeing policy in two key areas of Trump's strategy to enhance national competitiveness.

· House Financial Services Committee: Arkansas Republican Congressman French Hill, along with outgoing committee chair Patrick McHenry, are advocating for crypto-friendly legislation. Hill plans to prioritize the Crypto Market Structure Bill within the first 100 days and investigate the so-called "Choke Point 2.0," which many believe unfairly targets the crypto industry through de-risking practices.

"This is a real opportunity to craft good policy for the industry," said Kristin Smith, CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based Blockchain Association, representing over 100 cryptocurrency companies. "The White House has indicated this is a priority. I think we will see a concerted effort across government agencies, legislation driving market structure and stablecoins, and a significant shift of innovation back to the U.S.," she added.

New Crypto IPOs and Venture Capital Inflows

The crypto IPO wave is heating up. Bitwise has listed five companies that may go public next year:

· Circle: The issuer of the second-largest stablecoin USDC, which secretly filed for an IPO in January of this year.

· Figure: Known for blockchain-based financial services such as home equity loans, personal loans, and asset tokenization, the company has been exploring going public since last year.

· Kraken: The U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange's IPO plans date back to 2021.

· Anchorage Digital: Its status as a federally chartered bank may pave the way for its listing.

· Chainalysis: A leader in blockchain compliance and intelligence services, is poised for a listing.

Additionally, Hadick from Dragonfly stated, "I expect the LP market to get better; they will want to put more money into cryptocurrency. Many traditional Web2 crossover funds will re-enter the Web3 space. We have already seen this trend in certain areas, such as stablecoins and payments." He added that venture capital transactions often lag one or two quarters behind public market price increases.

Crypto-Related Companies Included in Major Stock Indexes

MicroStrategy's stock price has risen over 400% this year. Due to new accounting rules allowing companies to reflect their Bitcoin investments at market value in financial statements, the company is now part of the Nasdaq 100 index, and analysts predict the company will next be included in the S&P 500 index. This change could see MicroStrategy enter index-tracking funds, joining the portfolios of countless American investors. MicroStrategy co-founder and CEO Michael Saylor's "Bitcoin Treasury" strategy (issuing bonds and stocks to hoard Bitcoin) has propelled the $86 billion-valued company into the top 100 of the S&P 500 index. Analysts suggest that Coinbase, up 70% this year, may also join this coveted index.

Surge in Stablecoins

With the highly anticipated stablecoin legislation set to be introduced in the United States, the stablecoin industry is poised for explosive growth, with a market cap expected to double to $400 billion. According to Bitwise data, stablecoin transactions are projected to reach $83 trillion by 2024, nearly on par with Visa's $99 trillion in payment volume.

Tether and Circle still hold a dominant position. However, Hadick warns that if they continue to operate more like asset management firms than payment companies, their growth may quickly stagnate.

In October, Stripe invested $1.1 billion to acquire the stablecoin platform Bridge, sending a signal that stablecoins could become a cornerstone of fintech. Stripe refers to it as a "superconductor for financial services," touting its unparalleled speed, low costs, and global impact. Robinhood is also following suit, exploring the creation of a global stablecoin network.

Meanwhile, the next-generation "Stablecoin 2.0" model is quietly emerging. Ceteris, research lead at New York-based crypto analysis firm Delphi Digital, explains, "There are many new stablecoin models that are providing token holders or applications that attract actual users with revenue sharing. I think these models are disruptive."

Accelerated Traditional Asset Tokenization

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has long been an advocate for tokenization. From real estate to art, everything may soon have a token. The biggest benefits of tokenization are instant settlement, lower costs than traditional securitization, round-the-clock liquidity, and transparency.

Three years ago, the cryptocurrency industry only tokenized $2 billion in real-world assets (RWA), including private credit, U.S. debt, commodities, and stocks. Today, this number has nearly reached $14 billion. Venture capital firm ParaFi predicts that by 2030, the tokenized RWA market size could soar to $2 trillion, signaling a significant shift in asset ownership and trading.

New Applications, Better Infrastructure

The buzzword at the end of 2024 is AI Agents. Get ready to witness the convergence of artificial intelligence with cryptocurrency, a fusion closer to science fiction.

This trend is already taking shape. Take TruthTerminal, for example, this AI Agent not only received $50,000 from Marc Andreessen but also became a millionaire using X social media. Its success stems from promoting a token based on an absurd meme from the early 2000s (the token's anonymous creator transferred a large sum of money to TruthTerminal's wallet managed by Andy Ayrey).

However, analysts are cautious about this. Practical artificial intelligence agents (such as those attempting to represent users in cross-blockchain complex transactions) are scarce and still in the early stages. "The reason agents are exciting is because they are very novel," said Delphi's Ceteris, "but for better or for worse, it could be the biggest bubble of this cycle."

Despite the fragmented nature of the blockchain industry, most decentralized applications have not yet gone mainstream, but the work of building robust infrastructure continues. Ceteris explained: "Solana has set the trend for the high-throughput blockchain era, with almost every new chain launching under this trend, thus birthing a plethora of cheap block space."

And so, the narrative theme of cryptocurrency has shifted from survival to prosperity. This is just a part of what may bring surprises next year. You can choose to prepare popcorn for this performance or dig into your wallet for this opportunity. Caution is essential as the market will experience highs and lows. This time, the stakes seem higher than ever.

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