Economists Raise U.S. Next-Year Economic Growth Outlook, Expect Fed to Slow Rate Cut Pace

BlockBeats News, November 25th, a new survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) revealed that the U.S. economy is expected to see moderate growth in 2026, but job creation is projected to remain weak. The survey, conducted from November 3rd to 11th, covered 42 professional forecasters. The median expectation for economic growth in 2026 is 2%, higher than the 1.8% from the previous October survey. Reuters reported that this contrasts sharply with the 1.3% growth rate forecasted in the June survey.

Respondents' median forecast also indicates that this year's inflation rate is expected to settle at 2.9% (slightly lower than the 3% forecasted in October) and then only slightly ease to 2.6% in 2026. Economists attribute a significant portion of inflation to tariffs.

Meanwhile, economists expect job growth to remain weak, with the monthly average addition of non-farm payroll jobs projected to be 58,000, lower than the 60,000 from the October survey. They also predict that in 2026, the monthly average addition of non-farm payroll jobs will be 64,000, below the 75,000 forecasted in the October survey. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and maintain that level throughout the year.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, it is anticipated that there will be a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by only a further 50 basis point cut in 2026 to bring the policy rate closer to a neutral level. (Jin10)