Crypto Market Experiences Broad Decline, How Are Institutions and Traders Viewing the Future?

Original Title: "【Ongoing Updates...】Crypto Market Suffers Comprehensive Decline, How Do Institutions and Traders View the Future Market?"

Original Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

On March 11, due to rising risks of a US economic recession, the market was severely concerned. By the close, the three major US stock indexes all plummeted. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.08%, dropping nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell by 4%, and the S&P 500 fell by 2.7%.

Large-cap tech stocks plummeted, with Tesla dropping by 15.43%, marking its largest single-day decline in over four years. Its market value evaporated by $130 billion overnight, and its stock price was "halved" from its all-time high.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued to decline, officially dropping below $80,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $79,090, reaching a low of $76,560, with a daily decline of over 8%. In addition, Ethereum briefly dropped below $1,800, falling to around $1,760. Several ETH whales' positions were liquidated, with an address holding 1,500 weETH (with a total debt of approximately 2.27 million DAI) in a leveraged long position being liquidated. After the ETH price dropped below $1,800, their 643.78 weETH (worth around $1.23 million) was seized.

Another whale on Maker faced liquidation, involving 60,810 ETH ($109 million). As the Ethereum price feed on Maker was not updated, the whale eventually reduced their position by 2,882 ETH to swap for 5.21 million DAI for repayment before the 10 AM Maker price feed update, slightly lowering the liquidation price to $1,781. Furthermore, a wallet suspected to belong to the Ethereum Foundation deposited 30,098 ETH ($56.08 million) into Maker six hours ago to lower the liquidation price. Currently, this wallet holds 100,394 ETH ($182 million) in Maker, with a liquidation price of $1,127.06.

According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached $937 million, with long liquidations totaling $742 million and short liquidations $194 million, affecting a total of 331,076 individuals. The largest single liquidation occurred in the BTCUSD pair on the Bybit trading platform, valued at $5.2611 million.

Since hitting an all-time high on December 16, 2024, the crypto market has evaporated $1.3 trillion in market capitalization, a 33% drop, equivalent to an average daily loss of $15.5 billion over 84 consecutive days. This marks the largest three-month market cap pullback in crypto history, with the total crypto value now at its lowest level since November 6, 2024.

Has the bull market really ended? How long will this round of decline last? In a market where panic continues to spread, are there still opportunities to buy the dip? How do institutions and traders view the future market outlook? Let's take a closer look.

Institutional and Trader Views

Arthur Hayes: Don't Rush to Bottom-Pick, Bitcoin May Bottom Around $70,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a post his plan as follows: Be patient, don't rush. Bitcoin may bottom out around $70,000, experiencing a 36% retracement from its $110,000 all-time high, which is very normal in a bull market. Then we need a free fall in U.S. stocks, followed by the bankruptcy of major players in traditional finance. After that, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world will start to flood the market with liquidity—that's when you should go all in. Traders will attempt to catch the bottom, and if you are risk-averse, you can wait to increase your position until after the major central banks start injecting liquidity. You may not catch the exact bottom, but you won't have to suffer through a long consolidation period and potential unrealized losses.

He also pointed out that BTC trading is 24/7 globally accessible to anyone with an internet connection, cannot be infinitely printed, and the consequence of failure is bankruptcy or liquidation. There is no direct tie of any nation's fiscal policy to the price of BTC. Stock trading operates on an 8x5 basis, accessible only to specific individuals, cannot be infinitely printed, but if well connected politically, may receive a bailout in case of failure. U.S. marginal tax revenue is directly tied to the stock market. Hence, the stock market will eventually be bailed out; it's just a matter of whether your portfolio can survive when the bailout occurs. BTC is a truly free market, while the stock market is not. Therefore, in a fiat liquidity crisis, BTC will lead the stock market in both a downturn and a rebound.

Cathie Wood: The Current Market Is Digesting the Final Stage of a Rolling Recession

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that the current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession, providing the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve with more policy adjustment space than investors expect, potentially driving the U.S. economy into a "deflationary boom" in the second half of this year. Cathie Wood believes that the Fed's monetary policy will become more flexible, and the market may be underestimating this potential economic recovery driver.

Rolling Recession refers to an economic phenomenon where different industries and sectors take turns experiencing a recession while the overall economy and job market remain relatively stable.

YouHodler: Bitcoin's Current Consolidation Phase Could Evolve Into a Mid-Term Bear Market

YouHodler's Head of Market, Ruslan Lienkha, pointed out that last year, Bitcoin's consolidation phase lasted for several months (even up to half a year), before ushering in the next bull run. However, he believes the current market environment is more complex. Pessimism in the U.S. stock market is prevailing, and concerns about a possible economic recession in the U.S. are intensifying. Given these factors, the current consolidation phase could evolve into a mid-term bear market.

However, Lienkha noted that while Bitcoin may evolve into a safe-haven asset in the future, investors currently still see it as a high-risk asset, often reacting more intensely to market sentiment changes compared to traditional financial markets.

Yuga VP: If This Is the Beginning of a Bear Market, ETH Could Drop to $200-400

0x Quit, Vice President of Blockchain Business at Yuga Labs, stated that seeing someone predict ETH's bottom around $1500 seems reasonable given the market conditions we are currently experiencing, but you need to ask yourself an important question - are we at the beginning or end of a bear market?

If this is the end of a bear market, then great. BTC has hardly suffered a significant price hit, with its price still stable at levels that were just a few months ago its all-time high, which is very bullish for BTC.

However, if this is the beginning of a bear market, be prepared to see ETH's price well below $1500. Believing that an asset that has dropped 30% this week and over 50% in the past 3 months has reached its long-term final bottom with only a 20% distance from here is quite absurd. If the bear market has just begun, the target price for ETH could be $200-400, which means an additional 80% drop from the current price, totaling a 90% drop, consistent with past bear markets.

0x Quit concluded by saying, "I personally lean bullish at this point, but my portfolio layout can also withstand further declines. If you can't accept the worst-case scenario, consider selling some."

Bravos Research: Crypto Market Experiencing Largest-scale Altcoin Purge Since the LUNA Crash

According to Bravos Research analysis, the current cryptocurrency market is undergoing the largest-scale altcoin purge since the LUNA crash in May 2022. The market has witnessed approximately $10 billion in liquidations, far exceeding the situation after the FTX collapse. Data shows that Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, indicating no clear altcoin season signal in the short term.

Anthony Pompliano (Pomp): Trump's Intentional Market Crash Is to Pressure the Fed to Cut Rates

Cryptocurrency analyst Anthony Pompliano (Pomp) has put forward a bold theory: the Trump administration may be intentionally creating chaos in the stock market to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates in order to avoid refinancing around $7 trillion of U.S. debt. Pomp points out that the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from 4.8% in January to the current 4.21%, indicating that the strategy is moving in the right direction.

Trump previously stated on Fox News that nobody can get rich with high interest rates because people cannot borrow money. The market expects the Fed to maintain the current rate at the March meeting, but the likelihood of a rate cut in May is now close to 50%.

Eugene: Long Position on SOL with a Small Limit Order at $113 Has Been Triggered

Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted in his personal channel that a small limit order for SOL was triggered at $113—let's see if this marks some form of a short-term bottom.

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