CF40: If Yellen becomes Fed Chair, US bond yields and the dollar may see a "fall before rising" pattern

BlockBeats News, December 8th, the China Finance Research Report stated that, under the baseline scenario, if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chair, it may lead to a situation where U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar initially decline before rising, overall benefiting the U.S. stock market.

From a timeline perspective, in early 2026, Trump will announce the nomination of a new chair, for Hassett, they would first need to be nominated as a Fed Governor and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated as Chair and confirmed again, and by May 2026, after the current Chair Powell's term expires, they would officially become the Chair, potentially starting to lead the June FOMC meeting.

The first quarter of next year is a critical period when the new chair's nomination begins to affect market expectations. If Hassett appears too dovish at that time, there is a possibility of U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar undergoing a phase of unexpected decline. However, as long as it does not significantly cross the line into "concerns about independence loss," with expectations met along with the U.S. economic recovery, U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar may transition to an upward trend. (FXStreet)