Bank of England, inflation and US employment: Thursday after the Fed

Lethargy in London, avalanche of numbers in Washington. Twenty-four hours after the first rate hike by the Fed since 2023, the Bank of England will also decide on its key interest rate at the end of the morning. Washington follows in the afternoon with three US publications at once, covering employment and housing. After the employment data on September 4, inflation on the 11th, and the Fed on the 16th, this marks the fourth major macroeconomic event in a fortnight. Two regions, two calendars, one day that the markets will scrutinize closely.

Key points of this article:

• The Bank of England must decide on its key interest rate, while the Fed has already raised its rates for the first time since 2023.

• Three key economic indicators will be released in the afternoon in Washington, testing the resilience of the labor market and the housing sector.

The Bank of England decides at 1 PM, between status quo and risk of hike

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will announce its decision and publish its minutes at noon in London, which is 1 PM in Paris. At the July meeting, the key interest rate remained at 3.75% by a vote of 6 to 3. Three hawks, Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Huw Pill, were already calling for a hike to 4%. A minority that carries weight.

According to the latest note from Goldman Sachs, the status quo at 3.75% remains the central scenario for this Thursday. However, a hike in November remains on the table: Goldman mentions a rise to 4%, driven by the surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel and more persistent inflation than expected. The vote could, however, shift to 5 votes against 4, indicating that inflation in British services is not easing.

Indeed, the figures published yesterday by the ONS confirm this tension. British inflation rose to 3.1% year-on-year in August, up from 2.9% in July. The cause: the surge in fuel prices. Underlying inflation (2.6%) and services inflation (3.4%) remain stable. The foreign exchange market is closely monitoring every word of the statement. A hawkish surprise would boost the pound sterling and tighten global financial conditions further, a climate rarely favorable to risky assets including Bitcoin.

3 US indicators released at 2:30 PM, covering employment and housing

At the same time that Londoners digest their decision, three US indicators will be released at 2:30 PM Paris time:

• weekly unemployment claims (BLS),
• the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index,
• housing statistics for August (Census Bureau).

The week of September 5 ended with 206,000 new unemployment claims, nearly in line with market expectations. The figures for the week of September 12 will be released this Thursday: the consensus expects them to be around 208,000, not to be confused with the already known 206,000. According to the Philadelphia Fed, its manufacturing index surged to 47.4 points in August from 41.4 in July. Nothing alarming so far.

Housing, the other indicator to watch

According to the latest report from the Census Bureau, building permits rose to 1.443 million in July from 1.374 million in June. However, housing starts fell by 12.4% in July, to 1.239 million units at an annualized rate. Indeed, a permit always precedes a construction, making it a leading indicator for the sector. The August figures will be released this Thursday. In the background, the Fed committee is already projecting a rate of 4.1% by the end of the year, leaving the door open for a final move in December.

🇬🇧 UK inflation rises to 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July, its highest level in five months. pic.twitter.com/OG2oPcOug2 --- Journal du Coin (@LeJournalDuCoin) September 16, 2026

Two continents follow the same thread, that of a monetary tightening that continues to spread. The Bank of England defends its credibility against a services inflation that refuses to recede. Washington tests the resilience of a solid labor market, while housing remains under pressure. The Fed had already made its decision the day before by raising its rates for the first time since 2023, just hours after the release of US retail sales data for August. The August housing data will be released in the late morning in the US, which is in the middle of the afternoon in Paris.

In the markets, Bitcoin digests the news without panic: the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between $75,000 and $76,500 since the Fed's decision, far from its structural support of $70,000 but also from the resistance of $77,000-$78,000 that it needs to reclaim. Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone on inflation did not trigger a drop, even though Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded about $746 million in net outflows over the last two sessions. The next steps will depend heavily on the day's events: a BoE decision or US figures that are tougher than expected would tighten financial conditions even further, a cocktail rarely favorable to risky assets.

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