Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin Investors: Focus on Treasury, Not the Fed, for a $1 Million Future

On May 8th, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, raised a crucial alert for cryptocurrency investors, particularly Bitcoin stakeholders. He emphasized that an overemphasis on the Federal Reserve’s policies might lead investors astray. Hayes pointed out that the evolving trade dynamics between the United States and China should be paramount in investors’ considerations. “The true focus lies within the Treasury’s actions, not the Fed,” he articulated during a recent CoinDesk interview. “Chairman Powell’s influence was minimal under the Democratic administration in 2022, and this trend continues now with the Republicans.” Hayes asserts that the Federal Reserve has now assumed a supportive role, while real power resides with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. By employing repurchase agreements and auction tactics, Yellen is effectively managing the complexities of the U.S. debt, flooding the market with liquidity. This excessive monetary flow, combined with ongoing governmental expenditures, leads Hayes to project Bitcoin could potentially hit $1 million by 2028. “The only metric that matters is whether today’s dollar supply exceeds yesterday’s,” Hayes remarked. Moreover, he argues that geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S.-China trade negotiations, are significant market influencers. While a potential agreement may appear strong, it may ultimately lack impactful reforms.