After Trump's "pump and dump," the stock market surged by $2 trillion. Is the tariff truce a market bottom or a "bagholder's exit"?

By: blockbeats|2025/04/10 14:30:03
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The previous day, Trump had just dropped a bomb by imposing a 104% tariff on China, exacerbating the global stock market's decline. Today, he posted again to announce another heavyweight news: due to China's unfair trade practices, the U.S. will impose a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, effective immediately. On the other hand, for over 75 countries that have not taken retaliatory measures, he has set a 90-day tariff suspension period, currently imposing only a 10% equivalent tariff, aiming to encourage trade negotiations.

After Trump's

Related Reading: "104% Tariff Sparks Sino-U.S. Trade War Panic, Can Bitcoin Hold the $70,000 Mark?"

Following Trump's release of this news, the stock market, which had been falling for several days, finally saw a chance for respite and rebound. The S&P 500 index surged over 9% within minutes, significantly reversing the downtrend of the past few days, marking the best performance of the S&P 500 since the 2008 financial crisis recovery. Within 10 minutes, the U.S. stock market's value soared by $4 trillion. U.S. tech giants surged across the board, adding $1.85 trillion to their total market value in just a few hours.

The crypto market also responded with a rebound. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin rose by 8.42% in the past 24 hours, reclaiming $80,000, Ethereum rose by 13.89% in 24 hours, now priced at $1642, and SOL surged by 12.38% in 24 hours, currently around $117. Other mainstream altcoins saw even larger gains, with tokens like XRP, AVAX, and SUI all rising by over 10% in the CoinDesk20 index. Some Solana ecosystem meme coins bounced back, with VINE seeing a 44.6% increase in 24 hours, and meme coins like FARTCOIN, POPCAT, GHIBLI rebounding by around 50%.

Rebounding Sharply, President Feeds Pump and Dump

This reversal was not without warning signs. As early as April 7, several U.S. media outlets reported that Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, said that U.S. President Trump was considering suspending tariffs on some countries for 90 days. Influenced by this news, the U.S. stock market, which had opened with a sharp decline, turned from a fall to a rise.

However, subsequent verification revealed that Hassett's exact words during his interview with Fox News that day were, "The president will make the decision he needs to make," and he did not clearly state that "Trump is considering suspending tariffs on some countries for 90 days." White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt also came forward to debunk this, calling it "fake news." As a result, the U.S. stock market once again reversed from gains to losses. Within a few hours, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all nearly erased the gains from the "90-day tariff delay" news.

Having heard the false alarms of the boy who cried wolf too many times, even when a hint of true news emerges, the market finds it challenging to produce a significant reaction. Shortly after the U.S. stock market opened, Trump posted on Truth Social, urging everyone to "stay calm," and later added that "now is a good time to buy DJT." When investors saw these provocative words, they probably immediately remembered another of Trump's recent "extreme theories"—as long as you don't sell, you won't incur losses.

However, this time it was not baseless hype. By Wednesday noon, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Benson were already seated in the Oval Office with Trump, discussing the latest tariff policies. At 1:18 p.m., Trump announced the decision to postpone tariffs on Truth Social.

The wolf had indeed arrived this time, but before the meat it brought could feed the market, the rat had already taken a big bite.

According to data released by Unusual Whales, traders had already opened bullish options positions on $QQQ, $TQQQ, and $SPY before Trump's "buy" post on Truth Social. Someone had opened a $SPY 509 bullish option position before the news was released, expiring today, and these options rose by 2100% within an hour.

What's shocking is that all options were opened today as new positions. Despite the high market volatility, some individuals kept adding to these bullish option positions, betting on a reversal in trend. With such large-scale trading and Trump's previous "buy DJT" shout-out tweet before announcing the tariff suspension, it's hard not to suspect that someone had early knowledge of the tariff delay information and engaged in insider trading.

Probation 90 Days: Final Ultimatum or Signal of Compromise?

For some policies, once the "delay tactic" is used, there is a high possibility that they will not be implemented or will be softened. A dedicated netizen in the community has compiled various statements made by Trump since taking office and the subsequent handling of them. It can be seen that many policies were all bark and no bite—when first promulgated, they were grand and imposing, but later they were obstructed and left unresolved. However, the content of the images inevitably contains elements of satire and is for reference only.

Setting aside Trump's personal characteristics, the continuous collapse of the U.S. market was also the driving force behind his backtracking. The previously tough tariff expectations led to an epic sell-off in the U.S. bond market, which at one point on Wednesday reached an extremely dangerous moment. The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose by 56 basis points in less than three trading days—a level of increase not seen in a 3-day period since January 7, 1982. Nomura interest rate trader Ryan Plantz even warned in an internal memo that, "In the Treasury market, the spread and benchmark trading are melting. The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a massive unwinding unseen in a professional career, and a liquidity vacuum has formed." Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, also warned in a lengthy article that the globally watched tariff issue is just the tip of the iceberg; the deeper issue is the systemic breakdown of currency, politics, and geopolitical order.

Related Reading: "Ray Dalio Interprets 'Nonsensical Tariffs': This is Just an Appetizer, the Collapse of Global Order is the Main Event"

Furthermore, pressure from the Democratic Party and the common people continues to mount. Democratic Party leaders have repeatedly referred to Trump's tariff policy as a "tax increase on American families." Senate Minority Leader Schumer pointed out that a 10% base tariff combined with high tariffs on specific countries could result in an additional annual expense of $5000 for ordinary families, affecting basic life needs such as car purchases and medical expenses. House Democratic leader Jeffries went further to state that the tariff policy will trigger a "Trump recession," which essentially is a "war against the American people."

In April 2025, protests broke out in over 1,300 towns across all 50 states in the U.S., involving millions of participants. Washington D.C. saw a gathering of over 100,000 people, while cities like New York and Chicago had march sizes exceeding 20,000. Protesters criticized the tariff policy for "betraying the foundation of the American nation" and accused it of raising living costs and worsening social divisions. The latest poll results show that Trump, who has been in office for less than three months, has seen his approval rating among the American people drop to 46%, with over half of the population questioning Trump's policies.

Under such pressure, there is nothing but Trump's response to a media interview when asked why he decided to pause. He said, "I think people are overreacting. People are getting a little bit impatient, a little bit scared."

Regarding the evaluation of the policy to suspend tariff reciprocity for 90 days, borrowing the opinion of FX Executive Director Amarjit Sahota, it is that "a 90-day pause will only bring more uncertainty to these 90 days." The negotiation results between the U.S. and 75 countries within 90 days, if the differences widen, may trigger a new round of sell-offs; the transmission effect of the U.S.-China tariff war has not yet been revealed, and the uncertainty about the two countries' economies and the long-term impact on the crypto market are all full of uncertainties.

This financial rollercoaster sparked by Trump's tweet is not just about market sentiment, insider trading, and policy volatility; it is also a reminder to global investors of risk awareness. Information asymmetry is becoming the new normal in the capital markets, and uncertainty is the most certain theme of this era. The 90-day pause period is more like a prelude to the next game. Let's stay rational and wait and see how the future unfolds.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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