152 Wallets Earn $8 Million in Polymarket Military Betting

A total of 152 wallets that focused on betting on military and defense events in Polymarket have generated a profit of $8 million. According to a report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), among 556 wallets settled in the Polymarket market by May 5, 2026, 152 recorded an average win rate of 97.2%. The overall hit rate for long-term military and defense bets was found to be 52%. In the market related to a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025, 19 long-term bets amounting to $164,292 were placed, with 8 wallets taking home $1.8 million. ACDC noted a pattern where the Orca account placed bets first, followed by traders with significant capital and automated bots. Polymarket transactions are recorded on the blockchain, allowing external researchers to track suspicious patterns, but the same transparency can act as a signal to other traders. ACDC recommended strengthening user identity verification and withholding payments for suspicious transactions. This incident is related to the prosecution of a soldier for allegedly using military information.

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